Justin Trudeau’s hopes of majority dashed – latest polls and odds
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The Canadian leader brought forward the election by two years in the hopes of making a majority to “finish the fight against” coronavirus – but his plans could go awry if recent data is correct. He called the election, taking place on September 20, in an attempt to bolster the majority he lost in the 2019 election.
Campaigning for the September 20 election is underway following Mr Trudeau’s request to dissolve Parliament on August 15.
He currently presides over a minority Government, following dismal election results in 2019.
But his attempts to boost his numbers seem to be falling flat.
The Liberal Party and Erin O’Toole’s Conservative party are now in a dead heat for the top spot according to the recent polls, with some even putting the right-wing party firmly in the lead.
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Mr Trudeau who became Prime Minister in 2015, aimed to capitalise on the fact that Canada is now one of the most fully vaccinated countries in the world.
However, he has suffered a series of setbacks linked to his handling of the economy, candidates who have been accused of sexual misconduct and Canada’s fourth wave of Covid-19.
He has severely underestimated the strength of his rival, Erin O’Toole – who is certainly less charismatic than Mr Trudeau – but has brought the Conservatives firmly to the middle ground to grab the attention of a wide range of voters.
Mr O’Toole has abandoned fiscal conservatism in favour of promising generous spending.
The Tories have also been able to capitalise on the fact an election was called at all, as many Canadian’s did not want an election just 18 months after the last one.
To make matters worse, Mr Trudeau has been met with bitter protests at several campaign stops.
One event last Friday had to be cancelled after an angry mob opposed to mandatory Covid vaccines risked overwhelming the Prime Minister’s security team.
The recent poll from CBC News shows that the Conservatives are the most popular party currently, with 33.7 percent support compared to the Liberals’ current 31.2 percent.
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But as it stands, the Liberals are likely to win more seats thanks to their leads in Ontario and Quebec – two of the key battlegrounds.
Experts are also putting Mr Trudeau in the lead for now, with a return to office likely despite his waning popularity.
Smarkets Head of Political Markets, Matthew Shaddick, told Express co.uk: “When Justin Trudeau called a snap election three weeks ago, the early odds at Smarkets suggested there was about a 60 percent chance that it would pay off with an outright Liberal Party majority.
“However, after a run of declining ratings, and seemingly no vaccine boost in the polls, the odds of a majority for the PM are down to just 10 percent.
“Despite the Conservatives having taken the lead in the polling averages, the good news for Trudeau’s party is that they’re still favourites to win the most seats at a 58 percent chance, although the odds are getting tighter by the day.
“So, although they’ve fallen behind in the polls and look set to lose their majority, our latest odds suggest the Liberals will remain the largest party and that Trudeau will likely stay in office.”
Mr Trudeau needs to increase his current seat share from 155 to 170 to get an outright win.
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