Dutton’s one-note Voice strategy puts Liberals in a spiral

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The Liberal Party is in a strange and damaging spiral that seems to pick up speed every time Peter Dutton tries to lift the party out of its dive.

The opposition leader has seen no dividend from his decisions to fight hard on the Indigenous Voice, commit his party room to a conservative agenda and oppose new laws on climate change, industry, housing and wages.

Peter Dutton’s Resolve Political Monitor performance rating is minus 28 per cent, his worst yet.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The approach is certainly keeping Dutton and his colleagues in touch with their base – by pointing their aircraft towards the ground and hitting the accelerator.

It is not working. The evidence is blindingly clear. Almost a year after it lost power, the Coalition is down to a primary vote of 28 per cent, six points below its election result. And Dutton has failed to win over Australians. His performance rating is minus 28 per cent, his worst yet.

Dutton is reaping the reward from his own decisions. He began the year by making the Voice his dominant concern, with several weeks of campaigning before parliament met in February. He has challenged the government on the cost of living and energy bills, but spends much more time on the constitutional reform.

Consider the opposition leader’s reaction to the Liberal Party’s defeat in the Aston byelection on April 1, the once-in-a-century loss in a suburban electorate in Melbourne’s mortgage belt.

Liberal backbenchers responded by calling for a sharper focus on housing policy, an end to culture wars and a stronger agenda on the cost of living. Dutton responded by calling a snap meeting of the party room on the Voice and deciding on a policy that forced his Indigenous Australians spokesman, Julian Leeser, to step down from shadow cabinet.

Dutton was at it again last week: he visited Alice Springs to talk about law and order, primarily a state and territory concern. The Resolve Political Monitor, which was in the field at the same time, found Dutton and the Coalition slumped on every key measure from primary vote to personal and policy performance.

So Anthony Albanese has widened his lead as preferred prime minister after Dutton seemed to be gaining a little ground over the past few months. Some readers took issue with our Resolve Political Monitor results in February, when it looked like the honeymoon was over for Albanese. Fair enough. But who would have foreseen a Coalition strategy to give Albanese a second honeymoon – with all the costs on Dutton’s credit card.

Real wages are falling. Household costs are rising. The federal debt is growing. The budget is three weeks away and the opposition leader is talking about the constitution – a big issue but not the only one.

Dutton with the newly promoted Kerrynne Liddle (left) and Jacinta Nampijimpa Price on Tuesday.Credit: AAP

Unveiling his new shadow cabinet team on Tuesday, Dutton made no mention of the cost of living, wages or jobs. There was no economic message at all.

If there was a strategic message from the reshuffle, it was that Dutton wants to respond to the Aston defeat by giving the Nationals more influence in his shadow cabinet and promoting Jacinta Nampijinpa Price – an outcome senior Liberals did not want.

Dutton’s enemies are wary of his policy judgment because they see him as a conservative warrior. His friends need to be wary of his political judgment because he is gambling the Liberal Party’s fate for this term of parliament on one issue, the Voice, and taking his colleagues with him.

History is against Dutton, because the first opposition leader to regroup after an election loss rarely triumphs – witness Andrew Peacock in 1983, Kim Beazley in 1996, Brendan Nelson in 2007 and Bill Shorten in 2013.

Dutton can make his own history, of course. He is the most proven performer in the Liberal Party and genuinely respected by his colleagues. He has won his marginal electorate of Dickson time and again when critics wrote him off. He has the political experience to recover from this spiral.

But the recovery only comes if the Liberals and their leader wake up to political reality. The numbers are in: it is almost a year since the election and voters are shunning Dutton and his party. Nothing he has done so far has won them back.

The only rational response is to change course. Otherwise, the ground awaits.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.

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