Labor’s victory in NSW shows risk for Liberals in Aston byelection

NSW election 2023

Labor has thundered into power in NSW with a surprising force that validates the party’s federal strategy, heightens the dangers for the Liberals in a looming Victorian byelection and sends a warning to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton about the risk of losing city voters.

The strength of the Labor victory proved the wisdom of campaigning not only on the promise of renewal after 12 years of Coalition rule but on ideas like giving healthcare and essential workers a wage rise.

Chris Minns’ win in NSW sends a warning to federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton about the risk of losing city voters.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen/Janie Barrett

The incoming premier, Chris Minns, campaigned without hoopla with messages about wages and the cost of living, as well as a halt to privatisation, all done in a way that promised a smooth transition rather than a revolution.

In other words, he offered the people of NSW what they had seen from Canberra since the last federal election in May: a middle-of-the-road leader who was dismissed for running a “small target” campaign and then increased his popular support after taking power.

Just like the new premier, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese took the risk of promising higher wages – in his case, a boost to the minimum wage as well as a pay rise for aged care workers – even when being attacked about the cost. The steadiness in the government in Canberra probably helped quell any unease in NSW about the risk of change.

The result is a sense of a Labor ascendancy that extends beyond the NSW border. Albanese is far more popular in the opinion polls after the election than before, and that means he has a chance to gain more ground by defeating the Liberals at the Aston byelection in suburban Melbourne this coming Saturday.

It may be only a small chance, but it is a chance. Labor is not sitting out the Aston campaign. It is sending Albanese into the electorate on repeat visits.

There is a good case to expect Aston to remain a Liberal seat. The party suffered an 11.6 per cent swing against former cabinet minister Alan Tudge last May, due in part to headlines over his personal life, and held the seat by a margin of 2.8 per cent. The Liberal candidate, Roshena Campbell, has none of the political baggage of her predecessor.

Even so, Labor candidate Mary Doyle can point to a solid government in Canberra that has acted on cost-of-living issues, such as passing caps on coal and gas prices that the Coalition opposed.

Dutton avoided the big moments in the NSW Liberal campaign – including the official launch for Premier Dominic Perrottet – but has been active in Aston because it is a federal contest with a direct impact on his leadership. All sides know the key question: Can the Liberals win in Victoria with Dutton as leader?

Perrottet and his team, including moderate faction leader Matt Kean as state treasurer, managed to hold Liberal seats with their moderate approach to social and economic issues. They fought an election on two fronts – against Labor in western Sydney and against teal independents in the city’s northern suburbs – and prevented the big sweep of independents seen at the federal election.

As of Sunday morning, the independents were ahead in Pittwater and Wollondilly, but the Liberals were holding on to other seats targeted by Climate 200 and its founder, Simon Holmes à Court. The argument from within the Liberals is that it could have been worse – and that a conservative message from Dutton would drive voters away.

Kean praised Dutton on Saturday night during the ABC coverage of the state result, sounding almost as if the two were on the same page. Could this be true? Kean, who declared on Sunday he would not run for the state Liberal leadership, has championed action on climate change when federal Liberals struggled for years to agree on a policy.

The Victorian Liberals, meanwhile, are demonstrating the constant potential for factional upheaval, as leader John Pesutto deals with a backlash over his attempt to expel Moira Deeming from the party room for appearing at a rally with Nazis.

Can the Liberals appeal to the middle ground? There should be no assumptions about Dutton’s tenure until the Aston byelection is over.

Loved by conservatives and loathed by progressives for his time in the immigration and home affairs portfolios, Dutton is trying to prove he can appeal to the middle ground. The NSW result shows why this is essential. The Aston result will reveal whether it is possible.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.

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