NSW slip into No camp puts Voice on track for defeat

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Key points

• Support in NSW slipped to 49 per cent in June-July, from 53 per cent in May-June, and softened from 56 per cent to 52 per cent in Victoria. 
• Support for the proposal is lowest in Queensland at 42 per cent, followed by WA and SA at 49 per cent.
• Nationally, 48 per cent said they would vote Yes and 52 per cent said they would vote No.

The Indigenous Voice to parliament is headed towards a referendum defeat, with most NSW voters supporting the No campaign for the first time and just 31 per cent of Australians expecting the Yes vote to succeed.

The move of NSW into the No camp – alongside Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia – underscores its status as a crucial swing state that will help decide the fate of the referendum.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has conceded support for the Voice is trending down just as the Yes and No campaigns ramp up.Credit: Glenn Campbell

The findings are the latest in a string of polls that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has conceded are trending down just as the Yes and No campaigns ramp up, prompting even prominent Voice supporter and Liberal MP Andrew Bragg to call for the vote to be delayed.

The Resolve Political Monitor survey, conducted last week exclusively for this masthead, shows support for the Voice in NSW slipped to 49 per cent over June and July, from 53 per cent in May-June, while it softened from 56 per cent to 52 per cent in Victoria.

The only other state in which the Voice enjoys majority support is Tasmania, on 54 per cent, though the sample size was small. Support for the proposal is lowest in Queensland (42 per cent, down from 44 per cent) followed by WA and SA at 49 per cent. For the referendum to pass, it must be backed by a double majority of states and the national vote.

The survey found 36 per cent of voters supported the Voice, down from 42 per cent of voters last month, while 42 per cent opposed it (up from 40 per cent) when asked about the proposed constitutional change. The number of undecided voters has also grown significantly to 22 per cent, from 17 per cent last month.

The number of people who said they would definitely vote Yes fell 6 percentage points to 19 per cent, while those definitely voting No rose 4 percentage points to 32 per cent.

When voters were asked a second question that allowed only a Yes or No answer, as they will be required to give at the referendum, 48 per cent said they would vote Yes and 52 per cent said they would vote No, down from 49 to 51 per cent last month and 58 to 42 per cent as recently as April.

Albanese has resisted calls to alter the referendum question and refused to name the date, saying only that it would be in the final quarter of the year.

But while the prime minister insists many voters will pay attention only in the final weeks, the official Yes and No referendum pamphlets that will be sent to Australian households were launched this week, and both campaigns are furiously fundraising and holding town hall meetings. No campaign outfit Advance on Friday asked supporters to chip in $825,000 for an advertising blitz.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the latest survey showed the overall result was still quite close, “but the referendum requires that the Yes vote wins in a majority of states too, and that goal is looking like a more distant prospect”.

“NSW is now the fourth state to be voting No, and Victoria and Tasmania are trending in the same direction. The current position, combined with the unwavering trend, certainly makes a No result the most likely outcome at this stage,” he said.

Bragg said on Friday the referendum should be delayed to ensure it was not defeated and the question being put to voters should be altered.

“A simple, clean amendment would have been much easier to attract more support and an exposure draft bill would have meant the detail questions [from the No camp] were not there,” he said.

“It’s clear the centre ground is falling away and NSW was always going to be the barometer state. It’s the product, not the marketing, that needs close examination at this juncture.”

A spokeswoman for the prime minister pointed to his refrain of “if not now, when” regarding the timing of the referendum.

Bragg’s fellow NSW Liberal MP and Yes supporter, Julian Leeser, said he did not support delaying the vote and argued that while people had doubts, the rise in the number of undecided voters showed there was still a chance to win people over.

“I think there is a lot on the minds of Australians at the moment and they just haven’t focused. Once the cases [for Yes and No] arrive in letterboxes, once the date has been set, that’s when people start to focus,” he said.

“It’s a good change, a safe change and it will make a difference for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.”

But one of the No campaign leaders, Nyunggai Warren Mundine, said the Yes campaign had treated Australians like mugs and insulted them by suggesting a vote for No was racist.

“I always thought this would be like the republic referendum. It will lose every state and the national vote. It will be a complete loss for the Yes campaign,” he said.

Support for the Voice held steady at 63 per cent among Labor voters – the same figure as June but down from 75 per cent in April – and at 26 per cent among Coalition voters. It increased by 2 percentage points among Greens voters to 83 per cent, while 72 per cent of “other” voters opposed it.

The Resolve survey found just 31 per cent of voters now believed the referendum would succeed, down from 38 per cent last month. Forty-seven per cent of voters expected the No campaign to win, up from 30 per cent, while 22 per cent were unsure, down from 32 per cent a month ago.

Voters did not welcome big business support for the Voice campaign – something Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has criticised – with just 29 per cent agreeing that corporate involvement was appropriate and 44 per cent saying it was not.

And following a recent call from Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney for the Voice to focus on health, education, jobs and housing, the poll found 33 per cent of voters believed improved healthcare should be its priority, 32 per cent of people nominated improved services in remote communities, 30 per cent chose tackling crime, and 26 per cent said education services. People were able to choose up to four priorities.

About a third of voters, at 32 per cent, said the Voice should be able to provide advice on issues that affected only Indigenous Australians, 29 per cent backed the body providing advice on issues that mainly affected Indigenous Australians, and 18 per cent favoured it giving advice on any issues, with the rest undecided.

While the national figures reported here come from a survey of 1610 voters conducted from July 12 to 15, the state-by-state results are drawn from two surveys in June and July to gain a higher sample size. The questions were identical in the two surveys and the national results have a margin of error 2.4 per cent.

The state figures are based on questions to 3216 voters, including 1012 in NSW and 1003 in Victoria, along with smaller groups in smaller states.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.

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