Pauline Hanson out of Aston byelection to help Libs, Labor launches attack ads

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson says her party chose not to run a candidate in the crucial Aston byelection to help the Liberal Party retain the seat in which right-wing micro-parties took thousands of votes from former Liberal member Alan Tudge.

Campaigning in the marginal seat in Melbourne’s outer-eastern suburbs will increase this weekend as Labor launches attack advertisements against Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. The ads, seen by this masthead, highlight Dutton’s record as health minister and label him “leader of [Scott] Morrison’s Liberal leftovers”.

Peter Dutton and the Liberals’ candidate for Aston, Roshena Campbell, campaign in the seat last month.Credit:Joe Armao

In last year’s federal election, more than 11 per cent of voters backed the Liberal Democrats, United Australia Party or One Nation in Aston, with about 65 per cent of preferences flowing back to the Liberal Party.

Before the writs were issued, several minor-party sources confirmed there were preliminary negotiations between One Nation, the United Australia Party, Family First and the Liberal Democrats about supporting a like-minded candidate to stand, with preferences directed back to the Liberals.

As it stands, none of those parties have candidates in the April 1 byelection with one former Liberal Democrats candidate, Maya Tesa, standing as an independent on a libertarian platform.

Hanson confirmed to The Age her party, which received 3.1 per cent of the vote in Aston in 2022, had initially planned to field a candidate but decided to give the Liberal Party “clear ground” to beat Labor.

Pauline Hanson wants to block Labor from gaining another seat in the House of Representatives.Credit:Rhett Wyman

“It was a strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition,” Hanson said. “Under no circumstance would I like to see Anthony Albanese and Labor with a stronger hold in the House of Representatives.”

A Liberal Party spokesman confirmed there had been no discussions with One Nation about the Aston byelection.

Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell was drawn ahead of Labor’s Mary Doyle on Friday when the Australian Electoral Commission held a ballot to determine the order candidates’ names will appear on voting forms.

Campbell’s position ahead of Doyle provides a potential advantage in any close contest due to donkey voting. One Liberal official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the ranking could be worth between 1 and 2 percentage points to Campbell’s primary vote.

Roshena Campbell is the Liberal Party’s candidate for Aston.Credit:Eddie Jim

Alongside Tesa, Campbell and Doyle, the Greens and Fusion Party will both field candidates running on progressive platforms.

The Liberals hold the once-safe seat of Aston on a margin of just 2.8 per cent after Doyle reduced the margin from 10.1 per cent at the 2022 poll, when Greens preferences flowed strongly to Labor.

The Greens, who secured a 12 per cent primary vote in the election, will run Angelica Di Camillo, an environmental engineer and Pilates instructor.

Independent psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham told The Age he expected Labor’s preference flows to be stronger than in 2022, but the Liberal primary vote to be higher.

He said many Aston voters who backed minor right-wing parties in 2022 would be more likely to support the Liberal Party on polling day.

“The Liberal Party’s primary vote should be significantly higher,” he said. “But if it’s 43 per cent or below, they could still be in trouble.”

Campaigning in the suburb of Scoresby on Friday, Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said Labor would start as underdog, while targeting Dutton and describing the byelection as a test of his leadership.

“No government has won a byelection off an opposition for the last 122 years,” Bowen said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with Labor’s Candidate for Aston, Mary Doyle, this month.Credit:Chris Hopkins

“There was a big swing to Labor at the last election, to Mary, that means it’s even tougher to get a big swing to her again.

“Anything other than a swing back to Mr Dutton is a great threat to Mr Dutton.”

Attacks on Dutton will form a key part of Labor’s bid to snatch the Liberal-held seat, providing the first glimpse of the way it will frame the opposition leader in future election campaigns.

Labor, whose campaign is being jointly run by national secretary Paul Erickson and Victorian secretary Chris Ford, will also highlight Dutton’s failed attempt to replace Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister in their advertising.

The ads, which will also run on YouTube and streaming services which can be targeted to specific postcodes, will urge voters to send a message to the Liberals to “do better than Peter Dutton”.

Labor’s election review found its decision to focus on the negative aspects of the Morrison government, and to limit the number of policies it put forward, was a sound strategic call that helped it win government.

Morrison was particularly unpopular in metropolitan Melbourne, where the Liberal Party now holds only a handful of seats, all of which are marginal.

In response, Dutton said Labor had nothing positive to say to Aston voters and highlighted the government’s cuts to local road projects.

“Labor have taken the outer east for granted. The best way to send Labor that message is to vote for our outstanding candidate, Roshena Campbell, on 1 April,” he said.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.

Most Viewed in Politics

From our partners

Source: Read Full Article