Voters don’t trust Victoria’s alternative government enough to change tack

This is part of our Victorian election series “Talkback”, featuring legendary broadcasters Jon Faine and Neil Mitchell’s takes on the campaign every Sunday. Read Mitchell’s piece here

Every election, as reliably as a Collingwood supporter screaming abuse at an umpire, some psephological sage will declare that this is the most important election in our lifetime. So disengaged are most Victorians, they must disagree.

Many voters have not even noticed the campaign. Donald Trump re-inflating, a barrage of missiles raining down on Ukraine and closer to home the Brownlow scandal and catastrophic floods have all swept our political bunfight from the headlines. Dan Andrews is the beneficiary.

The differences between the major parties – led by the Liberals’ Matthew Guy, and Labor premier Daniel Andrews – are hardly earth-shattering.Credit:Eddie Jim

The difference between the major parties is hardly earth-shattering. They both promise to spend more money than we can afford, with different infrastructure priorities and different coteries of ‘mates’ to share the spoils. They have both unleashed a torrent of lavish undeliverable claims to fix hospitals and lower the cost of living. And each has become enmired in integrity allegations.

Anyone scandalised by the latest disclosure of Glenn Druery’s ‘preference whispering’ has not been paying attention. This column repeated long-held concerns about his wheeling and dealing just a few weeks ago. His years marketing a cynical ‘get elected’ scheme is an affront to democratic values, butit is entirely legal.

Reform will only come when whoever is premier after next week is sufficiently embarrassed to surrender any perceived electoral advantage and restores integrity to voting. More significantly, will an upper house crossbench elected by that ‘system’ vote to abolish it? Will they vote themselves out of parliament? Don’t hold your breath waiting.

Andrews has been called to give evidence at several IBAC investigations, according to multiple reports, none denied. Giving evidence is not to be equated with being a suspect. Everything changes if and when any politician is formally accused, not just questioned.

Guy is also under scrutiny over his former chief of staff seemingly scheming to top up his public sector salary with payments to his private business, in a plan that ultimately amounted to nothing. The opposition leader is also being asked to explain anonymous donations to his campaign, but we will not learn if anyone broke the law until well after we vote.

Remember, every opinion poll has found voters rate integrity concerns a low priority.

Pre-poll attendance in the first week continued along the growth trajectory of recent elections. As many as half of us no longer want to wait until polling day to stand in a queue on election day munching on a democracy sausage from the local school fundraising barbecue.

Do we read anything into that? Only that once a voter makes up their mind, they can now get voting over and done with, and are doing so in record numbers. Election fatigue is a factor – enduring a federal campaign this year as well as our state poll is more than enough argy-bargy for all but the most diehard political tragic.

The apparent ease with which the still-new Labor government in Canberra has righted the listing ship of state it inherited from Captain Morrison may sooth and reassure anxious Liberal voters. Many of them turned teal at the federal election in May, straying from solid party allegiance for the first time to elect independents.

If they are impressed with that outcome, they may be emboldened to do it again. Those converts watch in disbelief at how out of touch their party has become, pitching a campaign on marginal issues.

Why commit to abandon the suburban rail loop when the same strategy at recent elections, with a muddle-headed campaign against sky rail, was a disaster? It pales compared to the ALP’s promised revival of a State Electricity Commission.

The Matt Guy/Tim Smith engineered coup that toppled Michael O’Brien just over a year ago has some Liberal voters convinced the party has lost its way. We will never know whether the less belligerent ex-barrister might have done better against Andrews. A Western Australia-style wipe-out seems unlikely, but not impossible.

I remain sceptical of scholarly predictions of a so-called teal wave. Federally, they had massive donations to their anti-Morrison cause and mobilised armies of volunteers. Several teal candidates became celebrities boosted by regular airtime on TV and radio. There is little sign of that being replicated here.

Liberals have only themselves to blame if they lose some close contests, having refused preference swaps in close inner-city seats. Both parties nervously look over their shoulders at the Greens, after their success in winning Brisbane at the federal poll. For 20 years they have confidently predicted they will gain the balance of power. They enjoy phenomenal support with younger
voters. Citizens who were 14 at the last election are 18 now.

Remember, oppositions don’t win elections – governments lose them. It seems unlikely the alternative government has gained enough respect to earn voters’ trust.

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