An Andrews minority government is a growing possibility

For most of the last term of the Andrews government, Labor has looked home and hosed.

While pollsters and political analysts agree that a returned Labor government remains, for now, the most likely outcome, there is a growing prospect of a minority government.

Daniel Andrews and his wife Catherine line up to cast their votes at the 2018 state election.Credit:Paul Jeffers

Findings from a Resolve Political Monitor in April, undertaken exclusively for The Age, showed Labor’s primary vote had fallen to 37 per cent, significantly lower than the 43 per cent primary vote it recorded at the November 2018 election, but still ahead of the Coalition.

While a uniform swing is unlikely, pollsters believe the drop in Labor’s primary vote would rob the government of three or four seats because many of ​​those votes would go to the Greens and flow back to Labor through preferences.

But this election, more than most, has to be won seat by seat.

Labor currently enjoys an 11-seat buffer in the Legislative Assembly. However, a reduced primary vote coupled with a jump in support for the Greens and independent candidates has party insiders worried.

Buoyed by their success in the federal election, the Greens’ ​​goal is to rob Labor of its majority by targeting the inner-Melbourne seats of Richmond (5.9 per cent), Lalor (1.7 per cent) and Albert Park (12.9 per cent when measured against the Liberal Party).

One Labor insider familiar with internal polling told The Age the party is in “diabolical trouble” in Richmond, which takes in parts of Fitzroy and Clifton Hill, as the Greens look to capitalise on the retirement of veteran Labor member Richard Wynne.

The departure of Martin Foley in Albert Park – which includes South Melbourne, Port Melbourne, Albert Park, Middle Park and much of St Kilda – creates a similar problem for the government.

At the federal election in May, Labor MP Josh Burns just held on to win his overlapping seat of Macnamara, where Greens candidate Steph Hodgins-May received a swing towards her of 5 per cent.

The seat of Northcote also presents problems for Labor. The electorate slipped to the Greens in a fiercely contested byelection in 2017 but returned to Labor in 2018.

Labor MP Kat Theophanous has a fight to hold on to her seat of Northcote which is under threat from the Greens.Credit:Justin McManus.

In a worrying sign for the Andrews government, political strategists who have conducted focus groups in the electorate report that voters are fed up with the major parties.

The prospect of losing three seats to the Greens puts Labor in a spot of bother. It will also be forced to depart from its familiar fight against conservatives and take on a more progressive threat.

At the federal election, Labor managed to avoid too many contests with independent candidates, allowing Anthony Albanese to form a majority Labor government, albeit narrowly, despite Labor’s low primary vote.

In Victoria, so-called teal candidates are gearing up to potentially challenge sitting state MPs in overlapping state seats, particularly in Melbourne's inner east.

While this could lead to the Liberals losing the seat of Kew, it leaves Labor exposed in Hawthorn, which John Kennedy unexpectedly won in 2018.

Recent polling conducted in Hawthorn in early July, seen by The Age, shows Labor is likely to come third in the seat if Hawthorn becomes a three-way contest.

Labor MPs also fear the party is exposed in the outer-suburban seats of Melton and Werribee, not from a teal candidate but from a “purple candidate”.

These independents differ from the teals, who have been described as a mix of Liberal and Greens. Instead, purple independents are expected to appeal to blue-collar voters who no longer feel the Labor Party represents them but are unwilling to support the Liberals.

Liberal candidate for Kew, Jess Wilson, is expected to face a challenge from a so-called teal candidate.Credit:Eddie Jim

While unlikely to win the election, the Liberal Party is increasingly confident it can snare the seats of Bayswater, Bass, Box Hill, Cranbourne and Nepean from Labor.

Polling puts Labor's statewide primary vote ahead of any other party, but it faces a triple threat from the Greens, Liberal Party and independents (both teal and purple),

Working in Labor’s favour, pollsters are not yet detecting a significant mood for change in the electorate. To measure this, voters are asked whether they think the state is heading in the right direction or off on the wrong track.

Four months from polling day, there is no strong desire to change government, according to insiders from the major party. Although, Coalition strategists argue that four months out from the federal election, focus groups were showing no great desire to dump the Morrison government. And we all know how that worked out.

It seems that while Daniel Andrews remains preferable, he is not popular and that has voters searching for an alternative.

Labor is so far refusing to speculate on the prospect of a minority government, declaring: “No deals will be offered, no deals will be done.” But if Labor fails to win the 45 seats it needs to form a majority, it might not have a choice.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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