Can you smell the optimism in the air?

Suddenly, it is as if we have turned a corner. The year has started with a surge in optimism, and we should share it as much as possible. As we drag ourselves back to the world of work, there is ample reason to be hopeful as we look ahead.

For starters, no elections! It was a rare coincidence that Victorians had to contend with both a state and federal election in 2022. It meant a palpable drag on the spirit of the vast majority who do not relish the blood sport that politics has become.

Victorians can expect to see fewer politicians in fluoro vests in 2023 after two elections in a year.Credit:Dominic Lorrimer

Last year was a perpetual electoral cycle – Groundhog Day with politicians and their endless stunts and contrived photo opportunities. The people who are supposed to be running the joint had nothing else to do but don yet another fluoro vest and hard hat and face the cameras and microphones with a random construction site as the theatrical backdrop. Tradies became warm props as promises piled up at an alarming rate.

There is probably no easy way to measure the effect an election has on the community’s mood, or the impact on the economy, but back-to-back campaigns undoubtedly affected our communal spirit and delayed Melbourne’s pandemic recovery. Anxiety and uncertainty inevitably accompany even a democratic tussle for power, replete as it is with unknowns, populist sloganeering and the economic recklessness encouraged by crass short-term appeals to voters’ hip pockets.

Elections are also corrosive of business confidence, although the extent of that is harder to measure. Not unique to this state but more so than elsewhere, the Andrews government itself is a major driver of economic activity, with the infrastructure binge called “the big build” contributing to expensive capacity constraints across the construction sector.

Creating jobs is self-evidently a good thing, and the government’s commitment to a “pipeline” of construction projects to keep that specialist workforce engaged and stable is sensible and the key driver in the growth of Victoria’s economy. But it has come at a cost and fine-tuning the pace of infrastructure investment remains a major challenge.

The Andrews government exploited the advantage of incumbency in every possible way. The public service is required to be neutral and independent, but the singular focus with which departments approached November 2022 was ample evidence that political neutrality is more an ideal than the reality.

Victorian Ombudsman Deborah Glass is conducting an inquiry into the politicisation of the public sector. We can safely assume there will be some commentary on the blurring of lines in the campaign when that report is released mid-year.

Federally, having hit the ground running after the demolition of Scott Morrison, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was everywhere through the summer, learning from his predecessor’s mistakes. Team Albo ministers will return from their summer holidays refreshed and determined to press ahead with their ambitious agendas. Even those who didn’t vote for them must begrudgingly concede there has been dramatic progress on the national integrity commission, the thaw on relations with Beijing, new emissions-reduction programs and the mini-budget. Hilariously, the Murdoch media maintain their obsession with breathlessly reporting every irrelevant utterance of still shell-shocked opposition figures – as if they still have some impact on what matters!

The “yes” campaign for the Voice will gather momentum for what I predict will be an unstoppable, grassroots groundswell, uniting religious, business, sporting, cultural and ethnic community organisations. As happened with the same-sex marriage plebiscite, afterwards we will wonder, “what was that fuss about?”

Rising interest rates and still-to-be checked inflation are the dark cloud on the horizon. Confirmation that real estate prices have come off the peak offers a glimmer of hope for new home buyers — good news for everybody except those who jumped in at the top of the curve.

Notably, many shops that closed during our lockdowns stubbornly stayed shuttered last year. But suddenly, like daffodils poking up through the topsoil, there are signs of life. Graffiti-clad ghost shopfronts are getting a lick of paint as an appetite for new ventures returns.

A visit to the CBD reveals a surge in inbound tourists, as well as an overflow of buskers. Just in time for the tennis, the city is pumping. The resumption of skilled migration and the return of thousands of overseas students is easing labour shortages that forced so many businesses to limit their hours even during the busy school holidays.

More inbound flights also mean improved availability of outbound tickets, and prices are slowly dropping from last year’s unsustainable peaks. At last, those lucky enough to have time and money can plan an overseas trip. Thousands of gleeful Australians will resume their pilgrimage to Bali or Thailand where their absence has hurt local economies dependent on tourism.

Conversely, local destination pressures should ease after years of no vacancy signs. The catastrophic floods along the Murray and the Kimberley will have grey nomads consulting their maps, looking for new destinations.

Will we see a glut of only slightly used camper trailers and caravans on Gumtree, probably sometime after Easter?

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