Census bungle 'could have inflated numbers of trans people'

Census bungle ‘could have inflated numbers of trans people’: Experts warn 260,000 estimate is ‘significantly’ too high because people with poor English were confused by question

A census bungle could have ‘significantly’ increased estimates for the number of transgender people, experts have warned.

Figures released from the huge survey earlier this year suggested that 262,000 residents of England and Wales were trans.

However, the statistics regulator is looking at the figures again after academics pointed out that the highest figures were in areas of London such as Newham – where English is often a second language.

Michael Biggs, associate professor in sociology at the University of Oxford, told The Times it did not seem ‘plausible’ that one in 67 Muslims was trans.

He pointed out that instead of posing a question such as ‘Are you transgender?’, the ONS asked: ‘Is the gender you identify with the same as your sex registered at birth?’ 

Academics pointed out that the highest figures for trans people were in areas of London such as Newham – where English is often a second language

Prof Biggs said the wording was chosen after consultation with LGBT lobby groups, but might have bewildered people who had a shaky grasp of English.

‘I’m 99 per cent sure that the misinterpretation has had a significant impact in inflating the numbers,’ he added.

He said statisticians ‘never thought about how a Bangladeshi grandmother or a Hungarian plumber will think about this question’. 

‘I’d be disappointed if a Masters student at Oxford made that error,’ Prof Biggs added. 

London had the highest proportion of over-16s saying they were trans, at 0.91 per cent. Eight of the the top 10 areas were in the capital – with Brighton and Hove in 20th place.

But it also had the most who did not specify their current gender at 0.42 per cent. The next highest in other regions was 0.25 per cent.

Some 1.51 per cent of Newham residents said they were trans, while in Brent the level was 1.31 per cent. 

Only two-thirds of residents in Newham speak English as their first language. 

The ONS admitted it was ‘possible’ the question had been misinterpreted, and is working with the Office for Statistics Regulation to analyse the data.

A spokesman told the Times it had tested different wordings and the findings were ‘broadly consistent with NHS data collected in the same year’.

‘However, while the question on gender identity was tested thoroughly, it is possible that individual responses were affected by different interpretations of the question and we will do more work to understand whether that was an issue,’ the spokesman added.

The census figures represented the first major evidence about the trans population 

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