Conservatives surge ahead of Labour in 'Blue Wall' seats

2023-05-25

Conservatives surge ahead of Labour in ‘Blue Wall’ seats for first time since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, poll reveals

One percentage point above Labour, which had lead of more than ten in October
The survey shows the voting intentions in more than 40 crucial southern seats

The Tories have surged ahead of Labour in traditional ‘Blue Wall’ seats for the first time since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, according to a poll.

The survey of voting intentions in more than 40 southern seats, which the party must hold onto if it stands a chance of winning the next election, shows the Conservatives on 34 per cent.

This is one percentage point above Labour, which enjoyed a lead of more than ten points in October.

It points to a major fightback with voters returning to the Tories following the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss.

It is thought that Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s pledge to give town halls more power to build on green belt land to meet housing targets is among the policies which has hit its ratings in the 42 largely rural and shire seats, which the Conservatives won with 49.74 per cent of the vote in 2019.

The survey of voting intentions in more than 40 southern seats, which the party must hold onto if it stands a chance of winning the next election, shows the Conservatives on 34 per cent

Asked last week about people in rural areas who don’t want to see the green belt ‘concreted over’, Sir Keir said ‘of course’ he wanted to protect the countryside but that his party was prepared to ‘make tough choices’.

READ MORE: Car crashes into Downing Street: Armed police arrest man after silver hatchback hits front gates as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak works inside

By contrast, in December Mr Sunak abandoned top-down targets to force councils to build 300,000 homes a year by the middle of the decade, pledging to protect the countryside.

The Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll had the Liberal Democrats, which has also pledged more than 300,000 homes a year, on 22 per cent.

This is down from 27 per cent at the 2019 general election.

Around 60 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters said they would vote Tory again if a general election were held tomorrow, up from below 50 per cent in October.

Just 13 per cent said they would switch to Labour, down from one in five.

When asked who out of Sir Keir and Mr Sunak would be a better prime minister, 42 per cent (+3) of Blue Wall voters said the latter and 32 per cent (-3) the former. Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, scored a net approval rating of 0 per cent (-4).

This hands Mr Sunak his largest personal lead over Sir Keir in the 42 seats since 14 November.

It points to a major fightback with voters returning to the Tories following the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss. Pictured: Mr Sunak on This Morning today

Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, scored a net approval rating of 0 per cent (-4)

Respondents said they trusted the Tories more on responding to the crisis in Ukraine (35 per cent to 22 per cent), the coronavirus crisis (32 per cent to 24 per cent), managing the economy (32 per cent to 24 per cent) and foreign affairs (32 per cent to 27 per cent). The Tories are also more trusted on the economy and national security and defence.

But Labour is trusted more on supporting the NHS (35 per cent to 20 per cent), investing in ‘left behind’ areas (32 per cent to 18 per cent), tackling poverty (33 per cent to 20 per cent) and managing housing (32 per cent to 19 per cent).

The findings will provide a boost for Mr Sunak following disastrous local election results earlier this month in which the Tories lost more than 1,000 seats. However, at the time polls showed that the party could have lost up to 2,000 seats after Ms Truss’s premiership ended.

It suggests Mr Sunak’s ‘Mr Fix-it’ policy approach is starting to cut through with voters.

Sir Keir’s inability to define a woman and his perceived weakness over tackling Channel migrant boats have also been raised as issues on the doorstep.

Just as Labour MPs in the ‘Red Wall’ lost safe seats in 2019 after years of taking their voters for granted, the Tories must hold onto seats in their southern heartlands if they are to stand a chance of winning the next election.

Most pollsters are predicting a hung parliament but with Labour having the most MPs at the next election, expected to be held in Autumn 2024.

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