David vs Goliath: How do China and Taiwan's militaries shape up?
David vs. Goliath: How China and Taiwan’s militaries shape up as Xi Jinping tells Beijing’s troops to prepare for ‘real combat’ while Joe Biden claims US will defend the island from invasion
China last weekend conducted large-scale military exercises which simulated a complete naval blockade of Taiwan – the latest in a string of aggressive war games.
Beijing’s military described the threatening exercises as a warning to the self-governing island nation, declaring in a statement: ‘The theatre’s troops are ready to fight at all times and can fight at any time to resolutely smash any form of ”Taiwan independence” and foreign interference attempts.’
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sees Taiwan as a renegade province to be brought back under Beijing’s control – something the authoritarian president Xi Jinping has said he’s willing to do by force.
But Taiwan’s elected Democratic Progressive Party steadfastly argues it presides over a self-governing, democratic, capitalist society with overwhelming support from its people.
Taiwan has long been allied with the US and has a bristling military arsenal equipped with state-of-the-art American air and sea defence systems, manned by highly trained troops.
But the island’s landmass and military might are simply dwarfed by the behemoth that is China and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Here, MailOnline examines the discrepancies between Beijing and Taipei’s armed forces and explores how a potential invasion of the island by President Xi’s troops could play out.
Chinese troops from the People’s Liberation Army are seen patrolling with the Chinese flag on an exercise
Taiwanese soldiers pose for group photos with a Taiwan flag after a preparedness enhancement drill in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan on Wednesday, Jan 11, 2023
China’s President Xi Jinping believes Taiwan is a renegade province that must be brought under Beijing’s control
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., right, and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen deliver statements to the press after a Bipartisan Leadership Meeting at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., Wednesday, April 5, 2023
Military comparisons
Taipei’s army, navy and air force are among some of the most highly trained, technologically advanced and well equipped in the world.
But China’s massive population and vast resources mean Beijing’s military holds the advantage across every conceivable metric.
In terms of sheer numbers, China currently maintains a whopping 2 million active service personnel, far outnumbering Taiwan’s comparatively paltry 170,000-180,000 troops, according to the latest 2023 figures published by Global Firepower.
Taipei does maintain a substantial reservist force, and in December president Tsai announced a revamp of her country’s defence policies to extend mandatory national service and beef up military reserves amid Chinese aggression.
But Beijing’s active service personnel still outnumber Taiwan’s entire military and reserve forces combined. And of course, the CCP has more than 600 million citizens of military age, fit-for-service citizens from which it could theoretically source new troops endlessly.
In the air and sea, it’s the same story.
China’s fleet of military aircraft totals 3,166 of which more than 1,000 are dedicated fighter aircraft, while Taiwan can only muster 737 aircraft in total.
And Beijing can deploy 730 naval vessels, including two huge aircraft carriers from which they can launch aerial assaults, 78 submarines and 50 destroyers.
Taipei in comparison has just four destroyers and submarines.
A jet fighter takes off from China’s Shandong aircraft carrier, over Pacific Ocean waters, south of Okinawa prefecture, Japan, in this handout released by the Joint Staff Office of the Defense Ministry of Japan April 10, 2023
Air Defense and Missile Command of Taiwan Air Force takes part in a military exercise, at an undisclosed location in Taiwan in this handout picture provided by Taiwan Defence Ministry and released on April 9, 2023
A Taiwanese air force Mirage 2000 fighter jet lands at an air force base in Hsinchu
What would a Chinese attack on Taiwan look like?
There are two scenarios that defence analysts tend to settle on when thinking about China’s military options against Taiwan.
The first is a naval blockade – a tactic which would represent an enormous challenge for an island nation like Taiwan that is reliant upon its ports for survival as only 35 per cent of its food is produced domestically.
Taiwan is within easy reach of the PLA Air Force, and China’s navy would be capable of encircling the island as demonstrated in last week’s simulated blockade.
Beijing’s warships operate a large quantity of anti-ship cruise missiles that would pose a major threat to Taiwan’s naval forces. China can also equip its fighter planes with various weapons designed to take out naval vessels, while the country’s land-based rocket forces wield the mighty DF-26B – which has a range of up to 2,500 miles.
The Chinese navy would likely launch dozens of missiles in salvos designed to arrive at the target location simultaneously while preventing any military or humanitarian aid from reaching Taiwan by sea.
This tactic would enable Xi’s armed forces to deny Taiwan the vital food and minerals that the island relies upon, whilst simultaneously presenting a defensive nightmare for Taipei and any of its partners trying to break the blockade. The goal would be to coerce Taiwan into accepting China’s will.
An animation provided by Chinese military officials to The Global Times showed a simulated attack on Taiwan
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, a missile from the rocket force of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) takes part in operations during the combat readiness patrol and military exercises around the Taiwan Island on Friday, April 7, 2023
Ships of Taiwan Navy take part in a military exercise in Taiwan in this handout picture released on April 10, 2023
Why does China claim Taiwan?
The island’s history as Taiwan is relatively new, and the island has been populated by Malayo-Polynesian peoples for centuries.
China descended into civil war 1927 – 1949, between the nationalist KMT party and the CCP in power today.
Through WWII, Britain and the US offered much support to the KMT to fight Japan and restore stability.
But Russia allied more closely with the CCP, which hoped to solve China’s problems through socialism.
Ultimately, the nationalist government was forced out and relocated to Taiwan along with 1.2 million people from China.
Today, the CCP governs mainland China and still lays claim to the island and waters around it through its ‘One China’ policy.
Taiwan’s democratic capitalist government meanwhile maintains that it is a sovereign nation and wants its freedoms and democracy preserved.
Most Taiwanese people oppose joining China for fear of losing these freedoms.
Read more here.
The second scenario is the one which sees China’s vast army embark on an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in a similar fashion to the D-Day landings.
This scenario, which might happen as an extension of the naval blockade, would include an extensive preparatory period that Beijing would be unable to hide. An invasion would require – at a conservative estimate – between half a million, and a million personnel, as well as the transport ships to get them to Taiwan.
At some point, the airspace over the Taiwan Strait would be closed and China’s army, air force, and navy would begin a massed air and missile attack.
Cruise and ballistic missiles would be directed at Taiwan’s air defences, logistics hubs, airfields, and government buildings in the hope of decapitating its ability to maintain and coordinate resistance.
At the same time, China and Taiwan’s air forces – those Taiwanese aircraft that survive the initial bombardment – would take to the skies in an attempt to defeat each other. Once the PLA’s leadership was satisfied that Taiwan’s defences had been sufficiently softened, it would begin the invasion in earnest.
The first wave may well include helicopter-borne special forces as well as the PLA Airborne Forces, which have their own armoured vehicles (APCs) designed to be parachuted into combat, and would likely consist of soldiers from the Chinese army’s Eastern Theatre Command as well as the Marine Corps.
The APCs would be packed onto amphibious assault ships, and those that survive Taiwan’s fierce defences would disembark their APCs to steam onto the target beach.
Once on the beach they would face fierce resistance from Taiwan’s armed forces in prepared defences.
If Taiwan is unable to stop the first waves, its forces will gradually fall back into the mountains and cities to draw the Chinese military into a violent and bloody prolonged conflict – hoping that the US would intervene to tilt the balance of forces in their favour.
Whatever the outcome, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be unimaginably violent, and greater in scale than any amphibious assault conducted to date.
A map shows the scale of China’s simulated blockade of Taiwan
This handout photo from Taiwans Ministry of National Defense taken on April 9, 2023 shows Taiwanese soldiers operating tanks
Taiwan Air Force Mirage 2000 fighter jets approach for landing inside the airbase in Hsinchu, Taiwan
Will China invade – and if so, when?
Beijing’s incessant war games in the Taiwan Strait and Xi’s recent declaration that ‘China will never renounce the right to use force’ to bring the island under the control of the mainland suggest the CCP is laying the groundwork for a military operation.
‘The wheels of history are rolling toward China’s reunification [with Taiwan]’, Xi said in October at the Communist Party Congress.
And earlier this week Xi made perhaps his strongest statement yet, declaring his military must prepare for ‘real combat’ after it conducted war games in the seas around Taiwan.
China’s leader said the People’s Liberation Army, which is now the second largest force in the world, must conduct ‘military struggles firmly and with flexibility’.
‘You must strengthen real combat military training,’ he said in a statement carried by state news agency Xinhua, adding that the military must ‘resolutely defend China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime interests, and strive to protect overall peripheral stability’.
Taiwanese and US defence officials have in recent months warned they expect the PLA to be ready to launch an attack on the island well before the end of the decade.
CIA Director William Burns in February claimed US intelligence suggests Xi has instructed his country’s military to ‘be ready by 2027’ to invade Taiwan.
‘We do know, as has been made public, that President Xi has instructed the PLA, the Chinese military leadership, to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean that he’s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,’ Burns told CBS’ ‘Face the Nation.’
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu have since concurred with the Director’s assessment.
But for all of Xi’s posturing and declarations that Beijing will not renounce the right to use force to ‘reunite’ the island with the mainland, China has shown in recent decades it is very reluctant to fight a war.
Beijing last engaged in a large-scale military operation in Vietnam in 1979 which failed just as the US effort had four years prior – and the CCP has plenty to lose in a war with Taiwan.
The conflict would be widely condemned by its Western trading partners, and Xi has the hindsight of watching the damaging economic response levied by Western powers on Russia following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
And launching an invasion would run the risk of triggering a military response from the only world power whose armed forces have the might to overcome the sheer size of the People’s Liberation Army – the United States.
CIA Director William Burns in February claimed US intelligence suggests Xi has instructed his country’s military to ‘be ready by 2027’ to invade Taiwan
U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022
What would the US response be to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?
For decades, America maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity toward China and Taiwan, designed to allow administrations to maintain positive ties with both territories without alienating or angering one or the other.
Ever since 1979 under the Carter administration, the US has committed to supporting Taiwan’s security by selling arms and exchanging intelligence, but maintained full diplomatic relations with Beijing.
The US never agreed to come to Taiwan’s defence militarily should China launch an invasion, and has consistently refused to play a mediation role between the two nations.
That is until last year, when President Biden abandoned the long-held approach of strategic ambiguity and declared that the US would intervene with force to protect Taiwan from an attack.
Asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview broadcast in mid-September whether US forces would defend the democratically governed island, he replied with a categorical, unequivocal affirmative.
‘Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack,’ Biden said.
America’s willingness to abandon strategic ambiguity indicates the strategic importance of Taiwan on many fronts.
Firstly, the island boasts one of the most technologically advanced industries in the world and is the foremost producer of integrated circuit chips – often referred to as semi-conductors – which are vital for most technology used worldwide today such as smartphones, cars and PCs.
Secondly, Taiwan is a highly strategic ally in terms of its geography. Together with countries like Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia, Taiwan forms part of the ‘First Island Chain’ which allows the US and other allies such as Australia and South Korea to form a string of allied nations monitoring and discouraging Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.
And finally, Taiwan’s status as a thriving democratic, capitalist society is closely aligned with the political and ideological values held in the US and serves as an excellent example to promote these ideals on the other side of the world.
Whether Biden would keep his word and order his armed forces to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack remains to be seen.
The administration is likely hoping that the mere threat of such escalation and the prospect of a large-scale conflict with the world’s most fearsome fighting force is enough to discourage Xi from ever embarking on a mission to seize Taipei.
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