Experts predict festive season could be almost Covid-free

2022-10-31

Early Christmas present for families as experts predict festive season could be almost Covid-free

Modelling indicates Covid-19 infections will continue to decline until January
Professor Friston says it looks as if the current peak of infections has passed
He says long-term forecast suggests peak in Covid-19 infections after Christmas

Festive family gatherings are on this year as the UK is set to enjoy a relatively Covid-free Christmas, according to experts.

Modelling carried out by University College London indicates infections will continue to decline until January, with another wave possible in the new year.

But Professor Karl Friston told The Sunday Telegraph the ‘morbidity and mortality of a large post-Christmas wave should be substantially less than previous years’.

Professor Friston said: ‘It looks as if the current peak has passed.

Modelling carried out by University College London indicates infections will continue to decline until January, with another wave possible in the new year

‘The long-term forecast suggests a subsequent peak after Christmas. This appears to be largely driven by seasonal fluctuations in transmission risk and a slower underlying increase, due to the emergence of new variants.

‘One should perhaps also note that virulence has declined substantially, particularly in the face of vaccination.

‘This means the morbidity and mortality of a large post-Christmas wave should be substantially less than previous years.’

The total number of people in private households in the UK testing positive for coronavirus stood at 2.05million in the week to October 17, broadly unchanged on 2.01million in the previous week, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is some way below the peak of nearly four million reached in early July, during the wave caused by the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 subvariants of the virus.

More recent figures also show the number of people in hospital in England with Covid-19 has started to fall.

A total of 9,131 patients testing positive for coronavirus were in hospital as of 8am on October 26, down 12 per cent from 10,387 a week earlier.

Patient numbers had been rising since mid-September, but this trend looks to have come to a halt, with the total now having fallen for nine days in a row.

Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at the UK Health and Security Agency, said the fall in hospital numbers is ‘a testament to the continued success of the autumn booster programme’.

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