Fears grow as Putin weeks from making ‘final push’ in Ukraine

Russia: Putin facing ‘internal division’ in the military says expert

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Russia could be planning a “final push” in the upcoming months as Vladimir Putin looks to secure some success in time for the anniversary of the war on February 24, according to Ukrainian officials. Oleksiy Danylov, secretary of Ukraine’s Security Council, called on the West to increase its weapons supplies in light of suspicions of a rejuvenated and replenished Russian offensive in the imminent future. He said that it was vital Ukraine and its western allies by proxy “prepare for such events every day”.

 

Mr Danylov said: “We must prepare for such events every day. And we are preparing… The first and last question is always about weapons, aid to help us defeat this aggressor that invaded our country.”

Ukrainian officials have been warning for weeks that a Russian offensive will be staged either in January or during the beginning of spring when the colder conditions abate.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, said in an interview with ABC News this month that he expects the “hottest” fighting to be in March.

He claimed, however, that this period of post-winter fighting would see the “liberation of territories and dealing the final defeats to the Russian federation”.

In Belarus, Russia forces have been conducting joint military drills, forcing Ukrainian soldiers to remain stationed north of Kyiv should Putin’s forces look to open a second front and stage another attempt on the capital.

And on the Black Sea, six Russian missiles, including submarines, have been reportedly armed with up to 44 Kalibr cruise missiles, according to Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for the Southern Operational Command of the Ukrainian armed forces.

The naval version of the Kalibr cruise missile is designed to accelerate to supersonic speed as it approaches its target to evade air defence systems.

They have killed scores of Ukrainian civilians already, including 28 people, three of which were children, in July last year in Vinnytsia, central western Ukraine after three of the Kalibrs were launched from the Black Sea.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated on Sunday that the war is in a “decisive phase”, referencing both the importance of increased weapons supplies from the Alliance as well as the likelihood of a new Russian offensive.

He called on NATO members to “provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to win”, likely a nod to the calls on Germany to sign off permission for Poland to send their Leopard 2 main battle tanks.

Ukraine has repeatedly called for these offensive tanks but Germany’s ownership and hesitancy to allow the state-of-the-art engineering to fall into Russian hands has prevented them from being sent into the conflict zone.

Without explicit permission from Germany, no other country can send their own Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

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But Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications representative Andriy Yusov remarked on Sunday that Putin has recognized that Russian forces cannot take Ukraine quickly and is considering waging a drawn-out war of attrition.

The Institute for the Study of War, an American open source intelligence analysis outfit, later noted that the Kremlin appears to be retaining its “long-term maximalist goals to seize Ukraine”.

It added that Putin “is likely considering multiple courses of action to achieve those goals”.

As Russia struggles to make any significant territorial gains on the front, a protracted war could serve to slow down the Ukrainian pushback.

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