Gary Cohn on recession fears: 'We've weathered the storm in the United States'

2023-01-18

DAVOS, Switzerland — The economic gloom is flowing as freely as the expensive wine at this year's World Economic Forum (WEF). But don't put Trump's former top economic adviser and Goldman Sachs banker Gary Cohn in the recession camp.

"When I talk to people and ask them about their business, they seem to think their business is OK," Cohn, now the vice chairman of IBM, told Yahoo Finance Live at the WEF this week (video above). "So everyone here seems to think the other person has a problem. My personal view on this is: I think we've weathered the storm in the United States. It feels like we're coming out in a fairly decent place."

Cohn is somewhat in the minority with his more upbeat view on the economy.

Almost two-thirds of economists surveyed in a new poll by the WEF expect a global recession this year. One in five respondents now believe a global recession is "extremely likely" this year, more than twice as many as in a prior Sept. 2022 survey.

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The IMF also anticipates about one-third of the globe will be in recession in 2023.

And Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told Yahoo Finance Live at WEF his research team is expecting a "mild" recession this year. Economic growth will reaccelerate in 2024 and be sustained into 2025, Moynihan added.

As a result of the recession fears, CEOs at the WEF have told Yahoo Finance they are hunkering down. But Cohn is staying firm with his view that CEOs may want to start planning more optimistically.

"All the data shows that inflation is coming down relatively quickly," Cohn added. "And we still see pretty positive economic data. We still see employment growth. We still see GDP in a relatively good position. So I'm still cautiously optimistic going into next year, and so I'm clearly in the more bullish camp for those here in Davos."

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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