Leaks reveal Pentagon fears Ukraine's spring offensive will fall flat

America fears Ukraine’s spring offensive will fall flat: Leaked documents reveal Pentagon’s warning that Kyiv’s attack will ‘fall short’ amid shortages of newly-trained troops and anti-aircraft missiles

• Documents leaked last week predict only moderate success in the near future
• US warns Ukraine’s strategy focuses on cutting Russian connections to Crimea 

A newly-leaked top-secret Pentagon document casts doubt on Ukraine’s ability to launch an effective counteroffensive against Russian invaders this spring.

Outlining the developments of the war since February, the document picks up on ‘force generation and sustainment shortfalls’, predicting Ukrainian forces will fail to capitalize on decimated Russian lines.

The document predicts Ukraine will have only modest success in achieving its aims, to break Russia’s land connection to the Crimean peninsula while exploiting weaknesses to reclaim contested territories in the east.

This report breaks from Biden’s public reassurances of Ukraine’s military successes in deflecting the Russian offensive since the winter slowed progress on both sides.

It is part of a wider collection of US intelligence materials leaked on social networks last week, which the Pentagon and the Justice Department are investigating.

Ukraine remains committed to advancing south and severing Russia’s land ties to Crimea

Biden (left) meets Zelensky (right) in Kyiv in February ahead of the first anniversary of the war

Ukrainian serviceman fires a self-propelled howitzer near the frontline city of Bakhmut, 7 April

The leaked document paints a bleak picture of the months ahead from the Ukrainian point of view.

Despite global efforts to supply weapons and training to Ukraine, the document warns that ‘enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.’ 

What have we learned from the leaks so far?

• Emerging from the muddy ‘rasputitsa’ season, Ukraine is worn down after a year of war and will struggle to launch an effective counter.
• The defenders are lacking the training and munitions supplies needed to retake ground.
• However, US intelligence claims to have infiltrated Russia’s military and can warn Ukraine of upcoming attacks.
• Months before a Russian Su-27 clipped an American reaper drone over the Black Sea, a Russian fighter came close to shooting down a British UAV in September near Crimea.
• The Russian Wagner Group of mercenaries reportedly approached Turkey to buy weapons and equipment for its operations in Ukraine and Mali.
• The US reportedly asked South Korea to send aid to Ukraine.
• There are 97 special forces personnel from NATO countries in Ukraine, including 50 from Britain and 14 from the US. 
• Separately, the leaders of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, reportedly encouraged citizens and officials to protest proposed judicial reforms. 

Leaks suggest Ukraine will run out of S-300 anti-air missiles by 2 May at the current rate, hindering the ability to hold off Russian advances.

In the weeks since, President Biden has committed billions to Ukrainian aid, including high-tech drones, tanks and HIMARS systems.

Accounting for Western-supplied air-defence, reports note that Ukraine is ‘unable to match the Russian volume’ of fire.

On 4 April the US committed to sending Ukraine more interceptor missiles. 

Congress has approved more than $113bn of aid and military assistance to support Ukraine and allies since the war started in February last year. 

The American public is, as of this year, divided on whether or not to continue sending funds directly to Ukraine to support the war effort.

This proves a problem for Biden, with Trump and likely presidential candidate Ron DeSantis less supportive of sending aid.

The leaks may fuel the fire of war critics demanding peace negotiations as Ukraine struggles to reclaim its territory.

China has become increasingly vocal about its 12-point ‘peace plan’, which included calling for an end to Western sanctions, negotiations that would see Ukraine ceding territory, a NATO pull-back from its eastern borders and reconstruction efforts that are likely to benefit Chinese contractors.

Secretary of state Anthony Blinken has raised doubts that China was safeguarding the ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity’ of Ukraine with its ‘peace’ plans.

American security forces continue to investigate the source of the leaks.

Yesterday, Pentagon spokesperson Chris Meagher said officials were looking into the leak’s source and impact.

He said the US was keen to reassure partners of its ‘commitment to safeguarding intelligence’. 

The Washington Post also warned that some of the documents released previously appeared to have been doctored.

Information reported on social channel Telegram was shown to inflate Ukrainian casualty figures while downplaying Russian losses.

It was clear that the US remains unsure of the total number of Ukrainian losses.

Ukrainian servicemen stand with Kalashnikovs in a trench near their position near the frontline town of Bakhmut, Donetsk region on April 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Buildings destroyed in the eastern city of Bakhmut on 9 April after months of bombardment 

Earlier this week, classified documents leaked on social media suggested the US knew more about the Russian campaign than Ukraine’s operations, despite investing some $200bn into advanced military hardware and spying equipment for Ukraine.

Intelligence agencies were believed to have fully infiltrated Russia’s military and spy agencies, collecting substantial knowledge on future maneuvers, as well as knowledge of how poorly the Russian war was going.

The leaks also remind American allies that intelligence services collect information on them. 

Today, AP reported that US spies had caught Russian intelligence officers boasting they had convinced the UAE to ‘work together against US and UK intelligence agencies’.

Thomas Rid of Johns Hopkins University said the leaks in sum were perhaps the most significant since WikiLeaks’ “Vault 7” leaks on the CIA, revealing the scope of the agency’s ability to conduct cyber attacks and espionage worldwide.

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