Russia's spring offensive failed to gain Putin's forces any momentum

2023-02-21

‘More of a whimper’: Russia’s much-anticipated spring offensive in Ukraine has failed to gain Putin’s forces any momentum

Putin’s forces are suffering a fatalities-to-wounded ratio of around one in three
Russian casualties since the invasion began estimated to be around 200,000
Ukraine has suffered fewer casualties and lost between one in ten of its troops

Russia’s much vaunted spring offensive in Ukraine has failed to achieve its objectives and has resulted in 1,000 casualties every day, according to Western officials.

They said the anticipated thrust had been ‘more of whimper’, gaining no momentum despite the expenditure of huge amounts of manpower and equipment.

The Russians are also suffering a fatalities-to-wounded ratio of around one in three – due to poor medical facilities and logistical issues.

By contrast the Ukrainians have lost between one in 10 and one in 20 of their wounded, with many of those injured returning to action after treatment.

Overall, Russian casualties since the invasion began are estimated to be around 200,000 – with as many as 60,000 troops killed.

Vladimir Putin’s forces are suffering a fatalities-to-wounded ratio of around one in three due to poor medical facilities and logistical issues

Ukrainians have lost between one in ten and one in 20 of their wounded, suffering fewer casualties in contrast with Russian forces

Ukraine has suffered far fewer casualties – around 100,000 – due to its superior field hospitals and infrastructure.

It also customary in armed conflicts for the aggressor or invader to sustain heavier losses, as they are attacking fixed defensive positions.

Officials also revealed yesterday an estimated 97 per cent of Russia’s armed forces have been mobilised since the conflict began.

The scale of involvement, to the point of near saturation, suggests Vladimir Putin may be required to mobilise more reservists and retired troops.

It was widely anticipated his State of the Nation speech would include an announcement of a further mobilisation.

However, no such initiative was unveiled.

Between 150,000 and 300,000 Russians were thrust into service as part of an initial recruitment drive.

Of these, many deployed directly to the frontline. Others were dispatched to Belarus for military training.

Officials also revealed yesterday an estimated 97 per cent of Russia’s armed forces have been mobilised since the conflict began

Russia’s ‘human wave’ tactics have also been in a factor in high casualty and fatality rates, with troops forced at gunpoint by commanders to advance across exposed ground.

A Western official said: ‘The spring offence has started but it has been more of a whimper than we might have expected.

‘They have had issues with resources and not getting enough troops into position.

‘Russian casualty rates are around 175,000 to 200,000 across the campaign, with the Wagner Group bearing the brunt recently due to the human wave tactics.

‘We are not expecting any significant changes on the battlefield in the coming days. Missile strikes have petered out to small numbers due to a shortage of supplies.

‘The Russian offensive has been at an enormous cost and they have struggled to break through.

‘We expect Ukraine, supported by the West, to build momentum through the spring and summer.

‘While Russia is not in danger of running out of equipment, it has quantity rather than quality.

‘Ukraine has been effective at holding back Russia and depleting Russian forces. That is why it has held onto places such as Bakhmut, where the Russians have committed significant resources.

‘Eventually Ukraine may be required to make a reasoned decision to withdraw but Bakhmut would not represent a significant loss.’

Source: Read Full Article