Tory MPs note failure to win back voters after by-election flop

Is time running out for the Tories? Fearful Conservative MPs issue warnings over the party’s failure to win back voters after latest by-election flop

• Labour won West Lancashire election, with Ashley Dalton securing majority 
• Rishi Sunak’s Government is rapidly running out of time to deliver on its pledges

Senior Tories are growing ever more fearful about the party’s failure to win back voters after a significant drop in support in yesterday’s by-election.

Labour comfortably won the West Lancashire election, with charity worker Ashley Dalton securing a majority of 8,326 over Tory Mike Prendergast – a 10 per cent swing to Labour since the last election.

Former ministers believe Rishi Sunak’s Government is rapidly running out of time to deliver on its pledges, including the key issue of stopping illegal Channel migrant crossings.

Many believe Tory MPs should not have forced Boris Johnson to quit as prime minister as the party has fallen further behind Labour in opinion polls since he left. A growing number are standing down and many warn of a wipeout.

Former ministers believe Rishi Sunak’s Government is rapidly running out of time to deliver on its pledges, including the key issue of stopping illegal Channel migrant crossings

Those left are braced for fresh losses at council elections in May, with modelling showing the Tories could lose more than 200 seats in the Commons at the next general election expected in 18 months. The West Lancashire result, albeit on a turnout of less than 32 per cent, gave the Tories their worst result in the constituency since it was formed, with their vote share plunging to just 25 per cent.

A polling model by Britain Elects said a similar swing on a nationwide level at the next election would mean a Labour landslide, with the party on 424 seats and the Tories on just 138.

Another survey, by People Polling, put Labour on a 50 per cent vote share with the Tories on just 21 per cent. Last summer, several polls had the gap between the parties at only four points.

Polling experts say the Conservatives are facing a wipeout on the scale of the 1997 election defeat they suffered at the hands of Tony Blair’s New Labour. Professor Matt Goodwin told GB News: ‘If I was in Rishi Sunak’s team, I’d be pretty worried. These numbers are pretty bleak for the Conservatives.’

Many believe Tory MPs should not have forced Boris Johnson to quit as prime minister as the party has fallen further behind Labour in opinion polls since he left

Professor Sir John Curtice told the Independent: ‘Given the unprecedented scale of the fall in Tory support, nobody can be sure what the outcome in seats would be if the current polls were reflected in the ballot boxes.’

Tory peer Lord Cruddas told his colleagues yesterday: ‘Unless we act, we are heading for a general election meltdown.’

His warning echoed former Cabinet minister Nadine Dorries, who announced she was standing down as an MP this week. She said the Tories’ poll standing ‘could be described as terminal’, adding that it had been ‘sheer stupidity’ to ditch Mr Johnson.

Another senior party figure told the Daily Mail that Mr Johnson’s name was repeatedly raised by voters on the doorstep this week.

‘People are asking the same question: When is he coming back?’

The former Cabinet minister said it was fanciful to have thought Mr Sunak would give the Tories a poll bounce, particularly as he was seen as being responsible for Mr Johnson being ousted.

Nadine Dorries announced she was standing down as an MP this week. She said the Tories’ poll standing ‘could be described as terminal’, adding that it had been ‘sheer stupidity’ to ditch Mr Johnson. 

Several other Conservative MPs who are standing down told The Daily Telegraph the party would struggle to win the next election. Mark Pawsey admitted it would be ‘difficult’, while Crispin Blunt said: ‘I don’t think it’s likely.’ Many Tory MPs are pinning their faint hopes for a revival on the new PM’s determination to stop the small-boat Channel crossings. But the long-awaited Bill to tackle the problem is not expected for at least two weeks.

Another former Cabinet minister said: ‘Turning the polls around will require a bit of bottle and someone who is prepared to take a punt. Not doing anything is not achieving anything. It’s one thing to steady to ship, it’s another for the ship not to move. The ship at the moment has no wind in its sails.

‘The easy retail offer for voters is introducing a Bill to stop small boats – that’s one of the big issues, and it’s one that incenses people most. We’ve been back in Parliament for weeks and there’s no small-boats Bill – that is meant to be top of the Government’s agenda.’

Others are agitating for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to announce tax cuts in next month’s Budget, and for the Government to deliver on the benefits of Brexit.

A government source said: ‘We are focused on delivering the priorities of the British people, including halving inflation, reducing debt, growing the economy, cutting waiting lists and stopping the boats – not on polls.’

Boris ‘favourite PM’ since since 2019, voters say

Boris Johnson remains more popular than either of his successors as prime minister, a poll suggests.

The survey for GB News found that one in four people (26 per cent) said he was their favourite PM since the 2019 election.

About half as many (15 per cent) chose his rival Rishi Sunak while only 2 per cent went for Liz Truss. But most (36 per cent) said they were unsure who had been the best PM and a further 21 per cent declined to say.

Backing for Mr Johnson was higher among Tory voters, with 52 per cent backing him compared with 18 per cent choosing Mr Sunak and again 2 per cent preferring Ms Truss.

Commenting on the survey of 1,100 people, politics expert Professor Matt Goodwin said: ‘The fact Rishi Sunak is so far behind Boris Johnson… will no doubt be ringing alarm bells in No 10.’

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