GENERAL LORD DANNATT: Germany's tank U-turn could end this nightmare

Germany’s U-turn on tanks for Ukraine could mark the beginning of the end of this bloody nightmare, writes GENERAL THE LORD DANNATT

Olaf Scholz’s reported decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine could be the moment that finally marks the beginning of the end of this hideous war.

For too long, the German chancellor has dragged his heels over the move, ignoring the increasingly urgent demands of his Nato allies to help the Ukrainians by providing this vital hardware. Although the claims remain unconfirmed as I write, if true, the news could prove decisive.

As our former prime minister, Boris Johnson, eloquently wrote in these pages yesterday, Germany’s decision on whether or not to authorise the deployment of Leopard 2 tanks was a key stumbling block in preventing a swift Kyiv victory.

So far, modern defensive weapons, ammunition and training supplied by the West have prevented Ukraine from losing.

General Lord Dannatt: Olaf Scholz’s reported decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine could be the moment that finally marks the beginning of the end of this hideous war. Pictured: a Leopard 2 tank during a Nato exercise in Latvia

But now President Zelensky and his armed forces could win on the battlefield. The war is in a stalemate. The front lines, from the Russian border in the north-east to the Black Sea, have moved little since the Ukrainian gains in Kharkiv and Kherson in the autumn.

Key to ending this impasse is the provision of effective offensive capability to take the fight to the Russians. Put simply, Ukraine needs modern main battle tanks.

Britain has once again led the way by providing a significant package of what Kyiv requires, including Challenger 2 tanks.

Others have contributed useful packages of support, but the urgent need is for main battle tanks, well-protected infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery and huge quantities of ammunition.

Yesterday, in addition to the claims surrounding Germany’s Leopard 2 tanks, it was reported that the U.S. is ‘leaning toward’ sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine. These would only help further.

Either way, it’s crucial that the tanks arrive swiftly. As Mr Johnson correctly pointed out, Putin is almost certain to launch another offensive in the late winter or early spring. Based on the poor and chaotic performance of the Russian military so far, I anticipate it will be a bloody failure and a tragedy for many Russian families.

So the next few weeks are vital for Ukraine to build up the capability to launch its own counter-offensive in the wake of Russian losses. If Mr Scholz has indeed given the green light, those tanks could move into training areas in a matter of days.

For too long, the German chancellor has dragged his heels over the move, ignoring the increasingly urgent demands of his Nato allies to help the Ukrainians. Pictured: Scholz with a Leopard 2 tank in October

This would be good enough. Leopards were designed for army conscripts, so any Ukrainian that knows their way around a tank should have no trouble adapting to them.

The Leopards will be particularly advantageous on the battlefront in Kharkiv, where the Ukrainians have the best chance of winning.

If they can smash the morale of the Russian conscripts here and break the back of the Russian army, the current fights in Soledar and Bakhmut — which are geographically challenging areas — may become easier. And though the Russians have vast numbers of conscripts at their disposal, this doesn’t guarantee success.

For an army to lose, it does not necessarily have to suffer huge losses of men and equipment. Rather, it needs the individual soldier to believe that he or she has lost. When poorly led like the Russians, soldiers will vote with their feet and save their own skins.

We saw this around Kharkiv last autumn with leaks of phone calls from dejected Russian soldiers lamenting the way the war was going in the face of a swift Ukrainian counter-offensive. With some determination, Ukraine can do this once again. And they must. The positions of the two sides are irreconcilable.

President Zelensky has made it crystal clear that all the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, must be returned to his country.

Meanwhile, Putin, pictured here on video link on January 24, must show to his people that he has gained something out of this war

Any less than this would represent failure.

Meanwhile, Putin must show to his people that he has gained something out of this war.

He has failed to achieve regime change in Kyiv but at the very least he must retain Crimea and ideally control the four eastern oblasts that he declared to be ‘forever Russia’.

These two positions are contradictory — which means that this war must end on the battlefield.

It is in all our interests in the West to unlock the stalemate. Otherwise neither side will prevail and the war will solidify into a paralysis akin to the western front in the First World War.

Putin will remain in the Kremlin and the West and Nato will be condemned to a lingering and expensive re-run of the Cold War.

Insecurity could pervade Europe for a generation, with no end in sight to high energy prices and a rise in the cost of living.

Berlin must realise that the future of Europe lies in its hands once again. It must send the tanks now.

General the Lord Dannatt is a former Chief of the General Staff.

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