Majority of voters believe Australia’s migration intake is too high

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A majority of voters believe Australia’s migrant intake is too high amid a debate about how best to manage the country’s population growth while balancing business demands for skilled workers with community concerns about housing supply shortages.

Only 3 per cent of voters regarded the nation’s overseas migration numbers as being “too low”, while 59 per cent said they were “too high” and 25 per cent believed they were “about right” when asked about federal government projections the intake would surge to a record high of 400,000 this year before falling next year.

Only 3 per cent of voters regard the nation’s overseas migration numbers as being too low.Credit: Getty Images

The exclusive survey, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, found retirees and Coalition voters were most likely to nominate the intake as too high at 72 per cent and 70 per cent respectively, compared to 50 per cent of Labor voters.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has argued that his government’s planned overhaul of the migration system – which includes boosting minimum pay for temporary migrant workers, reducing the hours foreign students can work and scrapping labour market testing used to bring in workers – is aimed at “less migration, but of the right people” to boost productivity in areas of skills shortages.

But the record intake this year has set the foundations for a febrile debate, with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton using his budget reply speech this year to accuse the government of pursuing an unplanned “Big Australia approach” that would make the cost-of-living crisis and inflation worse.

This is despite the fact the Morrison government was forecasting Australia’s population would reach 27 million in early 2023, higher than the current estimate of 26.4 million.

Meanwhile, against a backdrop of skyrocketing rents, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, Labor and the Greens are at loggerheads over housing policy and the government’s signature $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund is currently stalled in the Senate.

The Resolve Political Monitor asked 1610 eligible voters their views on migration and other issues over four days to July 15. The results have a margin of error of 2.5 per cent.

The survey on migration said: “Permanent migration into Australia sat at around 160,000 people a year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels during 2020-2022. To make up for this, immigration is likely to reach 350,000-400,000 this year before falling to 320,000 next year. Some people say that this will put extra pressure on housing and infrastructure, whereas others say it is essential for income, business and skills.”

It then asked respondents to nominate if the intake was too high, about right, too low, or if they were undecided. Thirteen per cent said they were undecided.

“Many people are now concerned at the higher immigration numbers, with the comments we collect from respondents pinpointing the effects on quality of life and prices. When you throw hundreds of thousands of people into cities without increasing housing supply and infrastructure, they figure it’s got to have an effect,” Resolve director Jim Reed said.

The influx in overseas arrivals this year is one of the factors piling pressure onto the housing market. However, during COVID, population growth was at its lowest since World War I but house prices experienced their biggest increase since the late 1980s.

The record intake was fuelled by a surge in the number of backpackers returning to Australia and international students, many of whom were shut out of the country during the COVID-19 border closures. The surge is expected to be short-lived, with net migration forecast to fall to 260,000 in 2024-25 and the following year before stepping down further to its long-term trend of 235,000.

The survey also showed growing support for skilled workers to be the focus of the migration system, with 57 per cent of those surveyed nominating that group as a priority, while 41 per cent said immediate family members should be prioritised.

This reverses a trend observed in surveys in February 2022 and November 2021 at the tail end of the pandemic, when a majority of voters said family members should be the top consideration.

“While there is some nervousness about immigration numbers, Australians do appreciate that it can have a beneficial economic effect. That’s why they are increasingly prioritising skilled migration visas at a time when recession is very real a prospect,” Reed said.

Voters were split over the government’s planned increase to the minimum wage that can be paid to temporary skilled visa holders from $53,900 a year to $70,000 a year. The measure garnered 38 per cent support, while 34 per cent opposed it and 28 per cent were undecided.

The government’s plan to limit student visa holders’ work hours to a maximum of 48 hours a fortnight was supported by 45 per cent of those surveyed, opposed by 24 per cent, while 31 per cent were undecided.

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