Boris Johnson would hold his seat in a by-election, poll finds

2023-06-07

Boris Johnson would comfortably hold his seat if he was forced to fight a by-election over Partygate, poll finds

Mr Johnson would defeat Labour in his constituency by a margin of 50:33

Boris Johnson would comfortably hold his seat if he is forced to fight a by-election over Partygate, new polling found yesterday.

The former Prime Minister would defeat Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip by a margin of 50:33, according to polling on behalf of former Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft.

Mr Johnson faces a possible by-election this year if an inquiry into claims he lied to Parliament over Partygate recommends he is suspended for more than ten days.

The threat was underlined yesterday when the former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was suspended from the Commons for 30 days for breaking Covid rules.

Under parliamentary rules, MPs who are suspended for 10 sitting days or more are liable to face a by-election – but only if 10 per cent of their constituents sign a recall petition.

Boris Johnson would comfortably hold his seat if he is forced to fight a by-election over Partygate, new polling found yesterday

Former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was suspended from the Commons yesterday for 30 days for breaking Covid rules

This has never happened before in Scotland and has only occurred twice in the UK since the procedure was introduced in 2015.

But Miss Ferrier is now widely expected to face a by-election which Labour hopes to win.

Senior Labour figures claim their party would ‘win big’ in Uxbridge in a by-election.

But Johnson’s allies believe the Commons privileges committee will stop short of a ten-day suspension.

And the poll of suggests of 1,000 voters in Mr Johnson’s constituency found that he could win 50 per cent of the vote to Labour’s 33 if forced to run.

Writing on the Conservative Home website, Lord Ashcroft acknowledged that by-elections were often unpredictable.

But he said there were ‘good reasons to accept the picture at face value,’ adding: ‘We know that Johnson is able to command extraordinary affection and loyalty.’

The polling will also dampen speculation that Mr Johnson could consider making the so-called ‘chicken run’ to a safer seat before the next election.

He has already said he plans to stand again in Uxbridge despite polls suggesting a swing to Labour in London.

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