Dire new polling for Rishi Sunak as Labour widens lead to 17 points

2023-06-14

Dire new polling for Rishi Sunak amid war with Boris Johnson and economic woe as Labour widens lead to 17 points nationwide and 22 points in the Red Wall seats the Tories need to win the next election

Conservatives now 17 points behind Labour nationally, according to a Savanta
In the Red Wall, Labour is now 22 points ahead on 50 per cent

The Tories are reaping the fallout from the ongoing civil war over Boris Johnson and the wider economic conditions in the UK, two difficult new polls reveal today.

The Conservatives are now 17 points behind Labour nationally, according to a Savanta poll carried out after Mr Johnson sensationally quit as a Conservative MP on Friday. That is a rise from 14 points a month ago.

A separate poll carried out at the weekend by Redfield and Wilton Strategies shows the gap between the two parties in the Red Wall – the former Labour seats now held by the Tories – widening.

Labour is now 22 points ahead on 50 per cent, up five points since May 28.

While the row with Mr Johnson is dominating the headlines, the general economic picture is also looking bleak for Tory chances of retaining power, with one former Treasury official warning that the UK could be in a recession when it takes place.

A separate poll carried out at the weekend by Redfield and Wilton Strategies shows the gap between the two parties in the Red Wall – the former Labour seats now held by the Tories – widening.

Chris Hopkins, the political research director at Savanta, said: ‘Maybe now, finally, Boris Johnson will go away and let Rishi Sunak get on with governing.

‘While a three-point increase in the Labour lead cannot be attributed to Johnson’s resignation as an MP – it’s a change well within the margin of error – the short-term frustration for Sunak that Johnson is once again dominating the headlines, reminding the public of his (and his party’s) failings in office may be offset by a long-term gain.’

‘Sunak has needed to distance himself from Johnson and Truss ever since he became Prime Minister if he is able to repair the Conservative brand, and Johnson being out of Parliament is probably better for Sunak than him causing trouble on the backbenches.

‘Of course, it’s hard to imagine Johnson disappearing from the picture completely, especially with the Covid inquiry now underway, but there certainly could be an advantage for Sunak that Johnson isn’t in the political foreground for a while.’

The UK economy eked out 0.2 per cent growth in April as the Bank of England prepares to inflict more mortgage misery on Brits.

GDP clawed back ground from a 0.3 per cent fall in March, boosted by stronger consumer spending in shops, bars and restaurants

GDP clawed back ground from a 0.3 per cent fall in March, boosted by stronger consumer spending in shops, bars and restaurants.

However, the positive figure from the ONS will harden expectations that the BoE will hike interest rate rises next week, amid alarm at persistent inflation.

Jobs data yesterday showed wages going up faster than predicted, with markets responding to signs of a price spiral by assuming borrowing costs will go up.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt suggested he supported action by the Bank this morning, saying the focus on bringing inflation down must be ‘relentless’.

Lord Macpherson, the former chief civil servant at the Treasury, last night tweeted: ‘I can’t remember an election when 18 months out interest rates were still rising steeply.

‘It’s still possible the government may get lucky: underlying inflation may come down quicker than expected. But I wouldn’t bet on that.

‘Much more likely that the Bank of England will raise rates to a level where a recession next year becomes inevitable. As a Chancellor said 34 years ago (albeit a year further out from an election) ”if it isn’t hurting, it isn’t working”.’

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