Harry's tell-all must sell 1.7M copies for publisher to break even

Prince Harry’s tell-all memoir Spare must sell more than 1.7MILLION copies for Penguin Random House to break even – after gambling $20M on his ‘FOUR-book’ publishing deal

• Expert analysis predicts Spare must get combined 1.7m in print and e-book sales for Penguin Random House to earn back the $20million advance paid to Harry
• Book would need to enter the top 15 chart in the US and become a UK bestseller
• But observers say public could shun the memoir because they are tired of hearing from Harry and Meghan in TV interviews and their Netflix docuseries 
• Penguin could net around $12.60 per print book sale and $8.09 per e-book
• But publisher also has print costs and overheads – and paid the ghostwriter $1m

Prince Harry’s hotly-anticipated memoir Spare must sell around 1.7 million copies for publisher Penguin Random House’s $20million deal to pay off, according to an expert analysis.

Achieving the sales, a combination of print and e-books, would require Harry’s tell-all to break into the annual top 15 chart in the USA and become a bestseller in Britain.

But some observers say the public could be tired of hearing Harry and Meghan’s relentless complaining – first in their bombshell Oprah interview and then their Netflix documentary, which failed to impress critics.

Penguin announced its deal with the prince in July 2021 with a gushing announcement that promised an ‘intimate and heartfelt memoir from one of the most fascinating and influential global figures of our time’.

Promo material for the memoir, which is released on January 10 and already tops some pre-order charts, refers prominently to the death of Princess Diana in 1997 and the images beamed worldwide of Harry and Prince William walking behind their mother’s coffin.

The book has a sticker price of $36 but several large retailers are selling it for $22.40. In the UK, some stores are selling it for £14, which is around $16.85. 

The deal with Penguin Random House is for up to four books – including one or more that could be co-written with Meghan. Others could touch on ‘wellness’, leadership and philanthropy

Penguin Random House paid Harry a reported $20million under a deal that could include four books. His hotly-anticipated memoir Spare is likely to hugely outsell any subsequent books

An analysis by former Hollywood Reporter books editor Andy Lewis, published on his Substack The Optionist, predicts Spare must sell 1.3 million print copies and 400,000 e-books globally for Penguin Random House’s deal to turn a profit.

With those sales, Penguin would also rely on a relatively modest sales from further books included in the deal. The agreement reportedly also includes three more books, possibly including one or more co-written with Meghan.

But those are likely to be far less successful than the debut memoir, which will lift the lid further on Harry’s broken relationship with the British royal family – including claims of racism and bullying that Meghan said caused her to suffer suicidal thoughts. Subsequent books are rumored to be written on ‘wellness’, leadership and philanthropy.

Spare’s sticker price is $36 – but retailers like Amazon and Walmart are offering the book for pre-order at $22.40.

Spare will need to sell about 1.7million copies for it to net Penguin Random House a profit, according to an analysis. But observers say the public could be fed up of hearing from Harry and Meghan, after their Netflix docuseries and explosive interview with Oprah (pictured)

Spare promises to further lift the lid on Harry’s broken relationship with the British royal family

The print book’s wholesale price – which is pocketed by Penguin – is probably around $18.

The e-book costs $17.99 and Penguin get 70 percent of that – $12.60 – with the remainder going to the app store.

But Penguin must then pay Harry further royalties from each sale – estimated at $5.40 per print copy and $4.50 per e-book.

A crunch of the numbers suggests Penguin will net around $12.60 per print book and $8.09 per e-book.

The publisher also faces printing cost and business overheads – not to mention the $1million its paid to Harry’s pulitzer-winning ghostwriter, J. R. Moehringer

To recoup its $20million from Spare alone, it would probably need to average about 2 million sales of print and e-books combined.

The tell-all memoir Spare was No2 on Amazon’s best-seller list in pre-sales in North America and the UK on Wednesday morning. The Duke of Sussex’s book is £14 on the UK site.

Spare is being published in 16 languages including. The book’s title varies by language: for example, the Spanish version is In the Shadow, while French in The Substitute

The privacy-conscious couple have already spoken at length about their lives within the royal family. Pictured: the couple appear in their Netflix docuseries.

There are ultra-secure arrangements in place to keep its contents private before the launch, with the duke and his publishers going to great lengths to ensure it is published simultaneously around the world.

Spare is being published in 16 languages including Chinese, Finnish, Hungarian, Spanish and Portuguese. The book’s title varies by language: the Spanish version is In the Shadow, while French is The Substitute.

The title Spare is a play on the term ‘the spare to the heir’ – Harry’s position as second to brother William’s right to the throne.

Spare tells Harry’s story with ‘raw, unflinching honesty’, according to Penguin Random House.

Publishing sources said arrangements for Harry’s ‘explosive’ memoir’s release were ultra-closely guarded and being managed in minute detail, with only a handful of senior executives aware of the exact details.

Deliveries to bookshops are being scheduled to be last-minute to avoid unauthorized copies being leaked. Guarded sites across the world have been secured to house copies of the book prior to distribution.

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