Albanese approaches Australia republic debate with caution

The first verdict on Anthony Albanese since the death of Queen Elizabeth shows the Prime Minister was right to exercise caution and care with every step in the protocol to mark the transition to King Charles.

Albanese did not want to rush into a debate on the republic and nor did most Australians. He captured the national mood by saying now was not the time for that discussion.

The republican movement faces a mighty challenge to shift public sentiment.Credit:Getty

If he had stumbled, we would know it. What we know instead is that he kept his net approval rating at around 35 percentage points from the remarkable boost in his support one month ago.

This political leap is certain to be temporary because judgments change when leaders make tough calls, which is inevitable for Albanese and his ministers as they head to their first budget in October and (a bigger challenge, with harder decisions) their second in May.

The slump in support for a republic may also be temporary. The death of the Queen, and the avalanche of attention on the royal family, has contributed to the fall in republican support from 54 to 46 per cent since January. The past week was an unusual time to ask Australians what they thought about the monarch.

There is a real prospect, however, that support for a republic remains weak for some time. Newspoll surveys taken every few years over the past two decades show the republican vote ranged from 41 to 52 per cent while the uncommitted vote ranging from 11 to 20 per cent. There was no trend towards a republican majority over those decades. There is certainly no such trend today.

This will not change without a dramatic escalation in the republican campaign and, most likely, a champion for reform in The Lodge.

The leaders of the Australian Republican Movement will not be surprised by this latest survey because they expected the outpouring of sympathy for the royal family. Of course this would happen. The movement was right to fall silent.

The ARM has rebuilt its finances and membership in recent years but still faces two big challenges.

The first is that it is not really a movement. It does not reach far enough into Australian society to galvanise millions of people from different ethnic backgrounds and communities. It does not reflect the diversity of the nation – a problem it is trying to address. And it does not reach across the political divide; it needs more Liberals to speak up and ensure its campaign is truly bipartisan.

The second challenge is the division over its model. The ARM revealed a new approach in January that would see voters elect the president from a shortlist of candidates put forward by federal, state and territory legislatures. Former prime minister Paul Keating rejected it immediately because it would give the president a popular mandate, subordinating the prime minister.

So there is no progress on unifying the republicans since their split over the election of the president and their failure at the 1999 referendum. They offer a Labor government something it does not want: division, anger, political risk.

The lesson for Albanese? Hasten slowly. He has soared into the political stratosphere with his personal approval ratings and is being rewarded for his caution. Voters show no signs of urgency on a republic. Why should he?

This makes a republic look like a very distant prospect. Albanese has put a priority on a referendum on an Indigenous Voice in this term of parliament and does not want to fight two campaigns at once.

While observers assume he would pursue a republic if he won a second term, he has made no such promise. The challenge for republicans is to build enough political momentum, at a community level, to give him a reason to make that pledge.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.

Most Viewed in Politics

From our partners

Source: Read Full Article