Belarus threatens Poland as tanks move closer to border
Belarus: Tank crews cross Neman River on pontoon bridge
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Belarusian troops are reportedly moving closer to the Polish border in what appears to be a threat to a NATO ally, independent Belarusian media reported. According to Belarusian Hajun project, one of the Belarusian brigades crossed a pontoon bridge over the Neman river as part of the combat readiness inspection. Quoting a Belarusian military channel, the Belarusian media said: “Today Neman, tomorrow Vistula or Dnieper. There’re no barriers for the Belarusian tank crew.”
The Neman river runs from the eastern part of Belarus into Lithuania within 7.5 miles of the Polish border. If the Belarusian military executes its threat, the Ukraine war would spill over into Poland and most likely trigger article 4 of the NATO military alliance.
The risk of a Third World War escalated in mid-November after a stray rocket killed two people in the south-eastern Poland village of Przewodow, near the border with war-ravaged Ukraine.
After an emergency NATO meeting, Poland said the missile was “probably an accident” from Ukrainian air defences.
Belarus’ war operations have come under closer scrutiny in recent weeks as an increasing number of troops have reportedly amassed at the border with Ukraine – the same tactic Russian forces used before launching a full-blown invasion – raising fears of a potential assault on northwestern Ukraine.
For the second day in a row, the Belaruski Hajun project recorded increasing numbers of troops amassing Wednesday on the border with Ukraine, with local witnesses reporting Belarus troops have started building pontoon boat crossings across the Berezina river near the border.
The large-scale drills are unusual because they are “unexpected” for the military, said Aleksandr Volfovich, State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, according to Belta. He explained that Belarus is running the drills in order to handle the war in Ukraine if the situation around the country’s borders “deteriorates”.
“To put it simply, those are permanently ready forces,” he said.
Units from the 38th separate air assault group are reportedly heading to Malorita, which is around 15 kilometers (around nine miles) from the border with Ukraine, as well as to the town of Mokrany, which is about three kilometers (around two miles) from the border.
Belarus was previously used by Russia President Vladimir Putin to launch the failed capture of capital Kyiv in the early days of the war.
Alexander Rogachuk, the Chairman of the Brest City Executive Committee in Belarus, warned to the Belarusian news agency Belta that military exercises could ramp up and that troops will be instructed to march long distance and conduct firing and tactical tasks.
It is not the first time suspicions have grown around a potential Belarusian participation in the conflict. Over the summer, strongman Alexander Lukashenko announced Belarus was creating a military unit and a people’s militia along the border with Ukraine.
In early November, Russian troops and armory vehicles were deployed to Belarus, with authorities claiming they were working on readiness and defence.
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The White House has since argued the move was meant to distract Ukraine from its war operations in the south and east of the country where fighting is raging on.
“While they claim it’s to bolster their bilateral readiness it could also be an effort to try to pin down Ukrainian forces in the north of the country,” John Kirby, a White House National Security Council Coordinator, said last month.
However, the British Ministry of Defence assessed Belarus’ inspection its troops’ combat readiness does not signal that Minsk will form a force capable of launching an assault into Ukraine.
Belarusian troops and Russian units “are currently unlikely to constitute a force capable of conducting a successful new assault into northern Ukraine”, the UK MOD said.
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