Polls show Labour on track to win crunch by-elections on July 20

Storm clouds gather for Rishi Sunak as polls show Labour is set to romp to victory in crunch by-elections in Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge seat and Selby & Ainsty

Storm clouds are gathering for Rishi Sunak with polls showing the Tories on track to lose crunch by-elections.

The grim situation confronting the PM was underlined as research by JL Partners found Labour are eight points ahead in Uxbridge – Boris Johnson’s old seat.

Meanwhile, the Tories are apparently trailing by 12 points in Selby & Ainsty – a Yorkshire stronghold they had been optimistic about clinging on to.

The contests are due to take place on July 20 along with Somerset & Frome, with the Lib Dems bullish about seizing that prize.

Mr Sunak also faces the prospect of two more battles, with Nadine Dorries vowing to stand down from Mid Bedfordshire and former deputy chief whip Chris Pincher under pressure after a sleaze report called for him to be suspended for groping two men in a club.

Research by JL Partners found Labour are eight points ahead in Uxbridge – Boris Johnson’s old seat

The JL Partners poll for campaign group 38 Degrees, reported in the Standard, suggested Labour’s Danny Beales has 41 per cent support to 33 per cent for Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell. 

The survey was carried out between June 26 and July 4, with the views of 500 respondents weighted to represent the wider population. 

Downing Street has been hoping that the furious row over Sadiq Khan expanding ULEZ could save the constituency. 

However, although that ranked among the most important issues in the survey, 59 per cent cited cost-of-living woes as the deciding factor for their vote. 

A separate JL Partners poll of 502 people in Selby & Ainsty in the Yorkshire Post today put Labour on 41 per cent and the Tories on 29 per cent.

All constituency polls come with a health warning as the samples tend to be smaller and more difficult to make represent the wider electorate.

But there have been worrying signs for Mr Sunak as the Tories’ national support slips back amid soaring mortgage rates and party infighting.   

‘As things stand, Labour are set to win Uxbridge,’ said James Johnson, of JL Partners, although he added that ‘it is not inconceivable that the Conservatives could narrow the gap in the coming days’. 

Labour’s civil war on ULEZ escalated yesterday as Sir Keir backed the party’s Uxbridge by-election candidate calling for a delay. 

Labour’s civil war on ULEZ escalated yesterday as Keir Starmer backed the party’s Uxbridge by-election candidate calling for a delay

Sir Keir said Mr Beales was ‘right’ to raise concerns about the controversial expansion of the charging area.

The comments risk inflaming tensions with London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who has stubbornly refused to rethink the plans despite a mounting backlash.

Earlier this week Mr Beales used a hustings event to perform a U-turn and attack the extension of the £12.50-a-day levy on the worst polluting vehicles from August.

The charity worker, 34, said: ‘It’s not the right time to extend the ULEZ scheme in outer London, it’s just not.’

Questioned about the situation after giving a speech in Kent this morning, Sir Keir said: ‘Danny Beales is our candidate in Uxbridge, a very good candidate too.

‘And he is rightly raising concern on behalf of what he hopes will be his constituents in relation to ULEZ, because we all understand the impact it has financially.’

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