Ukraine will ‘probably win’ Russia war as 5 phases of conflict exposed

Russian troops ‘didn’t have time to finish lunch’

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Military experts are already charting the history of the turning tide of the war between Russia and Ukraine that rages on into its seventh month, as any form of victory for Vladimir Putin looks more remote. Nicholas Drummond, a defence industry analyst and ex-British Army officer, outlined how the views of leaders and predictions about the outcome of the war have changed in recent months.

It comes as Ukraine launched a series of counter-attacks last week that led to the recapturing of key cities in the north.

This evening, the military expert listed his five phases of the invasion of Ukraine.

They read: “1) Ukraine has no chance

“2) Ukraine will be defeated in the end

“3) Ukraine has fought itself into a position where it can negotiate with Russia

“4) Ukraine could possibly win

“5) Ukraine will probably win.”

When Russian troops first crossed over Ukrainian borders on February 24, a swift victory of some form or another seemed on the cards – something the Russian command had reportedly planned for.

The invading forces quickly swept into the country on several fronts: from Crimea in the south, into the north near Kyiv via what appeared to be Belarus, and into the pro-Russian Donbas region to the east.

However, miscommunication and disorganisation among the Russian ranks in the opening phase splintered Putin’s advance.

They were also met with a strong resistance from a well-trained if smaller Ukrainian military, which was able to pick off many Russian units.

Russia failed to assume complete control on a single major city, and months on it claims Kherson and Mariupol in the south, and Donetsk and Luhansk in the east.

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After their initial advance stalled, Russian forces withdrew from around the capital towards their current lines. The Kremlin stated that the objective of the military operation had been the “liberation” of the Donbas all along.

In recent months, Ukraine has been able to make deft use of Western-supplied missiles to strike military targets in the occupied southern regions and Crimea with pinpoint accuracy over the summer.

The disruption of infrastructure and effective crippling of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea led the Russian command to move large numbers of beleaguered troops to the south.

It also saw reports in mid-August of tens of thousands of people, believed to be Russian, fleeing the Crimean peninsula after a series of explosions.

Last week, Volodymyr Zelensky’s defending forces were able mount a series of successful counter-attacks in the north, liberating the city of Balakliya last week.

Ukrainian ground troops are now believed to be looking to encircle Russian forces in the north, cutting them off from the sympathetic Donbas region to the south-east.

Yesterday, Mr Zelensky announced that Izyum, a strategically significant town for supply to the front line, had been liberated.

The same day, drone footage purporting to show a line of Russian military vehicles fleeing across a bridge over the River Oskil, to the east of Izyum.

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