Liberals need to take a stand or risk being framed as ‘archaic’ and ‘mean-spirited’

When you ask Victorian Liberal MPs whether their party is capable of modernising and appealing to voters under 40, the prevailing view is that there really is no other option.

In Victoria, 36 per cent of voters are under-40s, compared to just 18 per cent a decade ago.

The prevailing view among Liberal MPs is the party needs to modernise.Credit:Justin McManus

Voting data tells us that it is no longer the case that cohorts of voters are becoming more conservative as they age, which is putting the Liberals at risk of losing an entire generation, and never regaining it.

Redbridge polling group has performed a demographic analysis of voting patterns in Victoria which highlights the longer-term issues for the Coalition. By the next state election in 2026, it is estimated that between 60,000 to 70,000 Coalition supporters will have kicked the bucket, potentially pushing the Coalition’s combined primary vote below 30 per cent.

Those Liberal MPs who haven’t lost hope on returning to the Treasury benches at some point in the next decade believe new leader John Pesutto, a moderate in Liberal land, is best placed to lead the party back to the political centre to appeal to the under-40s.

Pesutto has so far indicated that his pitch to younger Victorians will be centred around homeownership, greater opportunities for women and renewable energy. All worthy policy areas that – and I can say this as a member of the under-40 cohort – are likely to pique the interest of some younger Victorians.

John Pesutto after being named the new leader of the Victorian Liberal Party.Credit:Jason South

As with most things the Liberal Party does, these policies will overwhelmingly be tackled through an economic lens, which ignores the fact that many young voters cite social justice issues as their primary motivator.

Perhaps that explains why younger voters across Australia are expected to overwhelmingly vote in favour of a Voice for First Nations Australians when a referendum is held later this year.

Data from the 2022 Australian Election Study show that, compared to older age groups, younger voters are more likely to “strongly support” the Voice, and least likely to “strongly oppose” changing the constitution.

Voting data tells us that it is no longer the case that cohorts of voters are becoming more conservative as they age.

This has been repeated in several national polls which all conclude that support for the Voice is strongest among voters aged 18-34, with some surveys suggesting support for the constitutional change in that cohort is as high as 85 per cent.

Support for the Voice is strongest among young people aged 18 to 34.Credit:Justin McManus

So far, this youthful support has done little to persuade the state opposition to back constitutional change with Pesutto giving every indication he is yet to be convinced by the argument and, echoing federal leader Peter Dutton, wants more detail.

As it is a federal policy, the state Coalition technically doesn’t have to have a formal position on the Voice. But just as former leader Matthew Guy was asked to reveal his position on same-sex marriage – which he said he backed – so too will Pesutto need to reach a position on the Voice. Wherever he lands, sitting on the fence won’t be an option.

His current position, which he admits is not set in stone, puts him at odds with Liberal premiers Dominic Perrottet and Jeremy Rockliff who have both signalled their support for a Voice to Parliament.

But inside the Coalition party room, Pesutto is far from alone. Even among his more moderate colleagues, it is difficult to find strong support for the referendum.

“A lot of us want to be convinced but are yet to be swayed,” one Liberal MP said.

In an era where voters lament the lack of conviction in politics, it would be foolish for the Liberals to back a policy they don’t agree with just to try to appeal to younger voters. But by resisting the temptation, the Liberal Party risks handing the so-called teal conservatives a wedge on which to campaign.

Despite this, there is confidence among Victorian MPs in progressive seats that any attempt by the teals to use the Voice as part of a political campaign at the next election will backfire.

Liberal MPs who held off independent candidates in more affluent electorates are increasingly confident that their constituents would reject any attempts by the teals to weaponise any opposition to the Voice.

“There are a lot of my constituents telling me that they don’t support the Voice, and they don’t like being told that therefore they are racists,” another Liberal MP said.

Unless the Liberals carefully articulate their position, there is an even greater risk that their silence will allow the Andrews government to successfully market the opposition as archaic and mean spirited.

Opposing the Voice, as millions of Australians are predicted to do, isn’t necessarily a death knell for the Victorian opposition in a progressive state. But it can’t afford silence and indecision, which will only allow Labor to frame the Liberals’ position on its behalf.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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