Who will the Left blame for immigration issues when Keir takes over?

DAN HODGES: Who will the Left blame when Keir is in charge and the Channel boats keep on sinking?

This time they were relatively lucky. Only four of the occupants of the tiny inflatable that sank in the freezing waters of the English Channel on Wednesday died. More than 30 others were plucked to safety by the crew of the fishing trawler Arcturus. ‘It was like something out of a Second World War movie,’ the boat’s captain, Raymond Strachan, reported. ‘There were people in the water everywhere, screaming.’

This heroic intervention didn’t prevent Paul O’Connor, of the PCS union, which represents UK Border Force and Coastguard staff, condemning those he felt were to blame for the tragedy. ‘Suella Braverman says her heartfelt thoughts are with all those involved,’ he raged.

‘Those words ring utterly hollow when she has spent her time as Home Secretary vilifying and demonising the very people she now feigns sympathy with. She should resign in disgrace.’

The refugee charity Care4Calais went further. ‘These deaths are wholly unnecessary and preventable,’ said founder Clare Moseley. ‘By failing to act, our Government has blood on its hands.’

Pictured: Labour leader Keir Starmer speaks during Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons

This is a common view on the liberal Left. Ministerial callousness, cemented in the form of a dedicated ‘hostile environment’ immigration policy, is condemning refugees to death. Both directly, by preventing them finding sanctuary in the UK. And indirectly, by forcing them into the hands of the people-smugglers.

But that view is about to be challenged. Along with the cosy progressive consensus that some simple compassion and humanity are all that’s required to end the massacre of innocents taking place off Britain’s coast.

On Friday, Labour defended its seat in the Stretford and Urmston by-election. The 10.5 per cent swing from Conservative to Keir Starmer’s party was in line with the current opinion polls. There is little evidence of a Rishi Sunak bounce, nor a change of political momentum. Britain remains on course for a Labour government.

WHICH means the nation is also on course for a Labour immigration policy. And that is set to alter – in a very real and potentially deadly way – what will happen to those seeking refuge in the UK.

The first part of this change will occur the moment Keir Starmer arrives outside Downing Street. In that instant, a message will be sent to the world: Britain’s borders are open. Or, at least, more open. It’s true that under Starmer, Labour has been toughening up its immigration stance. He faced criticism only last month for saying too many workers are being recruited from overseas to the NHS.

But, overall, Labour’s broad philosophy on immigration and in particular the granting of asylum, is clear. It wants Britain to be more welcoming. It wants to abolish the ‘hostile environment’ strategy, and the rhetoric accompanying it. It wants to accept more refugees.

To point this out is not to peddle Tory black propaganda but simply reflect the default stance of every Labour Shadow Minister, MP and activist. Yes, the party is aware of the political sensitivities surrounding immigration.

Some 43 migrants were plucked from freezing waters on December 14

But a desire for a more liberal stance on granting asylum is the party’s official policy, and embedded deeply within its DNA. So, if and when Labour is elected, something inevitable will follow. As the world wakes up to a British government that is – by its own admission – more compassionate and welcoming to those seeking refuge within our borders, more people will seek refuge within our borders. And while many of them will have a legitimate claim to sanctuary, many will not.

For confirmation of what is set to transpire here all you need to do is look at what unfolded in the United States immediately following the election of Joe Biden. Within weeks of him beginning to roll back some of the more draconian aspects of the Trump immigration policy, his administration was faced with an emerging migration crisis on its southern border.

Such was the scale of the problem that Vice President Kamala Harris – whose own liberalism makes Starmer look like a card-carrying member of Ukip – was dispatched to Guatemala to baldly state: ‘Do not come. Do not come.’ They came anyway.

Then something else will happen. Soon after the message is sent out to the world ‘Britain under Keir Starmer is going to be more welcoming to migrants’, the new Labour government will confirm that the message the world is hearing is true. They will begin welcoming more migrants.

Under the party’s current policy, a series of new safe asylum routes will be established to enable refugees to enter the UK. Some of them will be in regions close to their country of origin. Others may be within France itself, given that French officials are currently asking for them to be established on the northern French coast.

What’s more, those routes will not just be opened, but advertised globally. Potential refugees will be told they can apply to come to the UK, the means by which they can apply, and the criteria they will be asked to meet. Where Kamala Harris said ‘Don’t come’, Starmer will say: ‘Come. If you have a justifiable claim, you will be welcomed.’

So they will. As the advocates of safe routes point out, there will be a short-term impact on the number of genuine refugees using the lethal services of the people-smugglers. But that will quickly be offset by the significantly higher number of people who apply. The higher number who subsequently get rejected and decide to make the journey anyway. And the higher number who try to openly exploit the new, more liberal regime.

Again, we can see that from recent experience. Since the lifting of Covid travel restrictions, the number of small-boat asylum applications from countries where people may be expected to have a genuine fear of persecution – such as Afghanistan – has risen.

Pictured: Labour Party leader Kier Starmer gives media interviews on the final day of the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on September 28, 2022

But the number of applications from countries where no such claim exists has increased at a parallel rate.

According to the latest Home Office figures, ‘the number of Albanians arriving on small boats has increased substantially over the last quarter. Prior to this point, Albanians were not commonly detected on small boats. There were 2,165 arrivals between January and June 2022, compared with just 23 detected in the same period the previous year’.

Then, on the day Keir Starmer makes his triumphant drive up Downing Street, one final thing will happen. He will begin to dismantle significant elements of the existing immigration enforcement regime. The Rwanda scheme will be axed. Plans for reform of the European Convention on Human Rights will be dropped. The ‘hostile environment’ will be gradually dismantled. And again, these moves – each of which will be roundly cheered by his liberal supporters – will be broadcast to the world.

Shadow Ministers are alive to the risks. As one ally of Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told me: ‘People think we’ll be more compassionate. But our focus is going to be on very practical measures to see what can be done to stop people getting into those boats.’ They stressed more officers for the National Crime Agency to tackle the gangs, and more co-operation with the French on removals.

But these measures represent sticking plasters when set beside the scale of the crisis. And the broader implications of Labour’s new ‘humane’ approach. Up until now, there has been a fiery but abstract debate about Labour’s stance on small boats. But soon the abstraction will end. Starmer and his colleagues are on course for victory at the next Election. At which point the liberal lawyers will not be drawing the wrath of the government, but sitting inside No10.

Progressive pin-up Ms Cooper, not evil Suella Braverman, will be in the Home Office. And the word will go out: ‘Britain will welcome you with smiles and open arms, not a one-way ticket to Kigali.’

Many will be enticed by the promise of Labour’s safe routes. But many will also be rejected. So the boats will keep coming. And the boats will keep sinking. And who will stand accused of having blood on their hands then?

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